Don't Worry About the Vase Podcast Fertility Roundup #5: Causation
Jan 2, 2026
Explore the intriguing decline in fertility rates and the shifting societal norms affecting family planning. Discover how rising pessimism impacts decisions to have children and the real constraints imposed by regulations like car seat laws. Dive into the appeal of child-free lifestyles and the pressures from greedy careers on modern parents. Unpack the demographic changes in places like South Korea and China, as well as the historical context behind these trends. The discussion also covers the potential political repercussions of an aging population worldwide.
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Two Core Fertility Questions
- Fertility discussions center on two questions: how bad is the decline and what's causing it.
- Zvi frames this within rising expectations and rising requirements as the central dynamic.
Developmental Idealism Explains Desire Drops
- Developmental idealism argues falling desired family sizes driven by social comparison with the West.
- Falling child mortality reduces required births and shifts long-run desired family size downward.
Fix Car-Seat Tests To Fit More Kids
- Update car-seat testing rules to allow European-style load-leg designs that enable three or four seats across.
- Regulators should add a floor-equipped sled option so manufacturers can certify multi-seat setups.