Forward Guidance Why This Isn’t A Bubble & Early 2026 Looks Like Goldilocks | Warren Pies
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Dec 24, 2025 
Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research and a macro investment expert, shares insights on macroeconomic trends. He explains why 2026 could experience Goldilocks conditions with growth without inflation, as well as risks of overheating. Warren dives deep into inflation dynamics, the K-shaped economy, and the implications of Fed policies on bonds and equities. He forecasts the S&P 500 could hit 8,000 early in 2026, while discussing strategic rotations from bonds to commodities amidst rising commodity prices.
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Goldilocks Into Early 2026
- Warren Pies expects a Goldilocks economy into early 2026 with growth but no big inflation boom.
- He forecasts the S&P reaching ~8,000 by early 2026 while remaining fairly valued.
Why They Faded The Fed-Mistake Story
- 3Fourteen argued for higher-for-longer rates and faded the 'Fed mistake' narrative in 2025.
- They saw shelter, oil, and labor as disinflationary vectors throughout 2025.
Rotate As Risk Shifts From Cooling To Overheating
- Position portfolios for a potential transition from overcooling to overheating in 2026.
- Rotate from overweight bonds toward assets that benefit from firmer inflation later in the year.