The President’s Inbox Are We Ready? | America's Next Battlefield, With Thomas Shugart
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Oct 30, 2025 In this engaging discussion, Thomas Shugart, a former U.S. Navy submarine officer and founder of Archer Strategic Consulting, shares insights on military readiness in an evolving global landscape. He explores how China’s potential military strategies toward Taiwan could challenge U.S. deterrence efforts. Shugart advocates for enhanced naval capabilities and the hardening of airbases to combat contemporary threats, including the use of unmanned systems. He warns about the vulnerability of critical assets and stresses the need for a proactive defense strategy.
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Uncertainty Is Taiwan's Short-Term Deterrent
- Thomas Shugart says uncertainty now defines the Taiwan contingency and deters immediate Chinese action.
- He warns that if China ever gains confidence in success, they may act on reunification goals.
Deter By Denying Success, Not By Punishment
- Shugart argues deterrence must deny success, not just impose costs on China.
- He warns cost-based deterrence may fail because CCP could accept high costs if success seems assured.
Blockade Or Bombardment Alone May Not Work
- Smaller coercive options like blockade or bombardment may fail if Taiwan resists.
- Shugart says such measures work only when backed by credible invasion threat.
