Kontrarian Korner #26 - Sal Mercogliano

On Friday I had Sal Mercogliano on the podcast to talk about all things shipping. His YouTube channel, What’s Going On With Shipping, is a great resource to stay up to date on all of the things that have an impact on the sector. You can also find him on Twitter. We talked about the incoming Trump administration and some of the different shipping sectors.

Podcast Summary

* The potential impact of tariffs from the Trump Administration, particularly the impact on China. We also talked about how tariffs might implemented, and why tariffs scaling in is better than implementing a large tariff all at once.

* Why he’s watching the Cabinet selections to see how it might have an impact on the business environment.

* He discussed why he favors the tanker sector, the potential impact of sanctions against Iran, and how a resolution in Ukraine could change things for tankers.

* Containers, $ZIM , and what might happen if/when the conflict in the Red Sea with the Houthis stops.

* Dry Bulk, and how he views it as a precursor for what’s going on in the economy. We also talked about bauxite growth, and the potential impact of other dry bulk commodities.

* The current state of the shipyards and order books, including longer build times, the impact of changing emissions standards, and scrapping potential.

* LNG, the US permitting export capacity with a new administration, and the issue of LNG competing with pipeline gas.

* China’s outsized impact on the shipbuilding sector. The country builds over half of the world’s ships, with the China State Shipbuilding Corporation accounting for ~20%.

* Book Recommendations: Maritime Economics by Martin Stopford & The Box by Marc Levinson.

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