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Lost Debate
Is Trump Blowing It? Plus Tom Bonier on Early Vote
Oct 28, 2024
Tom Bonier, CEO of TargetSmart and an expert in data analytics for Democratic campaigns, discusses early voting trends and their impact on battleground states like North Carolina and Nevada. He highlights how voter enthusiasm reflects shifting dynamics this election season. The conversation also delves into Trump's campaign strategy, analyzing how his podcast appearance and controversial rallies could sway undecided voters. Additionally, they examine the implications of early voting patterns and demographic changes in the electoral landscape.
01:12:25
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Quick takeaways
- Early voting trends have shifted dramatically since 2020, impacting campaign strategies across battleground states such as North Carolina and Nevada.
- Trump's recent public appearances and controversial remarks are shaping voter perceptions significantly, posing risks to his campaign's integrity and support.
Deep dives
Early Voting Trends and Partisan Shifts
The analysis of early voting trends highlights significant changes following the 2020 election. Prior to 2020, around 40-45% of votes were typically cast before Election Day, but the pandemic boosted early voting levels to nearly two-thirds. In 2022, however, early voting dropped back to about 46%, with many younger Democrats shifting back to Election Day voting. Republicans, recognizing the importance of early voting, adapted their strategies and invested in efforts to improve their early turnouts, although it appears their gains predominantly involve voters who were likely to vote regardless.
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Discover
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