HousingWire Daily Logan Mohtashami on home builders and new home sales
19 snips
Aug 15, 2025 
Logan Mohtashami, Lead Analyst and housing market expert, discusses the current state of home builders and new home sales. He delves into the relationship between mortgage rates and builder confidence, and how economic trends shape the market. Logan emphasizes the challenges builders face, including inventory issues and tariffs, while also highlighting the complexities that lie beyond simply increasing home construction. He advocates for smarter strategies and potential government intervention to address the ongoing housing supply crisis.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
10-Year Yield Drives Builder Performance
- Builder stocks and new-home sales closely track the 10-year yield because lower yields reduce mortgage rates and boost demand.
- Builders often sell completed inventory when rates fall, improving confidence and sales across company sizes.
Check Inventory Mix Before Predicting Starts
- Track completed inventory alongside months of supply before forecasting builder behavior.
- Expect builders to pause permits when completed units and supply rise together to protect margins.
Completed Units Matter Most
- Completed units for sale is the key builder metric because it shows ready inventory that must be sold before new construction increases.
- High completed units historically signal late-cycle risk and prompt builders to slow permits and starts.