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Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg
Tyler's three laws and twelve rules (with Tyler Cowen)
Dec 15, 2021
56:44
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Tyler Cowen, a prominent economist and coauthor of the influential blog Marginal Revolution, dives into thought-provoking topics. He discusses the flaws in current economic theories about real interest rates and critiques the hyper-specialization of economists. Cowen explores the value of learning from diverse perspectives, including navigating offense and ideology. He emphasizes the impact of role models on aspirations and the importance of mentorship in personal growth, encouraging listeners to engage deeply with differing viewpoints.
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Quick takeaways
- Cowan's assertion that all propositions about real interest rates are wrong critiques the unpredictability of economic variables and existing theories.
- The podcast highlights that many economists lack curiosity, often conforming to prevailing opinions rather than engaging in independent analysis.
Deep dives
Cowan's Laws and Economic Predictions
Cowan's third law asserts that all propositions about real interest rates are wrong, a statement stemming from experiences over decades in economic analysis. This has been observed as various claims regarding real interest rates, such as the impact of government deficits, often fail to manifest in measurable ways, surprising economists. For instance, amidst rising inflation, nominal interest rates have been slow to adjust, leading to a perplexing scenario where real interest rates can plummet to negative figures. This serves as a critique of existing economic theories, suggesting that macroeconomics may be more artful than scientific, highlighting the complexity and unpredictability of economic variables.
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Discover
highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode