The Credit Edge by Bloomberg Intelligence
UBS’s Mish Picks Credit Winners, Losers in US Election
Sep 19, 2024
Matt Mish, head of credit strategy at UBS, joins Bloomberg's James Crombie and senior analyst Julie Hung to dissect the impact of the US election on credit markets. Mish predicts that a Kamala Harris victory would favor bonds in basic industries and utilities due to support for existing stimulus policies. On the flip side, he warns that a Democratic win could hinder tech and telecom debt. They also discuss the outlook for US consumers, the stress in private credit markets, and the potential positives for energy and defense under a Trump presidency.
43:52
Episode guests
AI Summary
AI Chapters
Episode notes
Podcast summary created with Snipd AI
Quick takeaways
- A victory for Kamala Harris may bolster the performance of utility and capital goods bonds due to stimulus policy support.
- Concerns about consumer health reveal a split market, with high-income consumers driving spending while lower-income consumers show signs of stress.
Deep dives
Impact of Rate Cuts on Credit Markets
Expectations of rate cuts have fueled optimism in credit markets, leading to increased investment flows as clients seek better yields. The anticipated cuts, projected at three this year, are expected to incentivize investors to extend their duration, moving from short-term credit into longer-term securities. With the Fed shifting policy towards a more neutral stance, the expectation is that the credit market will continue to attract capital as borrowing costs decline. As clients reassess their portfolios in light of these changes, the overall outlook for credit remains positive, with yields still in a favorable range for investors.
Remember Everything You Learn from Podcasts
Save insights instantly, chat with episodes, and build lasting knowledge - all powered by AI.
