More or Less: Behind the Stats Is it true that out-of-work benefits have almost doubled?
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Sep 17, 2025 Tim Harford dives into the debate over unemployment benefits, confronting claims about their rise and the complexities of the welfare system. Surprising insights reveal that some French pensioners actually earn more than working-age adults. The efficiency of salmon farming is scrutinized, debunking myths about fish feed conversion. Additionally, the podcast challenges the traditional five senses, exploring the idea of up to 53 different sensory modalities, including balance and proprioception. It's a fascinating exploration of statistics and human perception!
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Counting Changes Drive Big Headlines
- The DWP's counts of 'out-of-work benefits' change as Universal Credit replaces older benefits, so headline totals can rise without more people being worse off.
- Universal Credit counts many people (including some working or receiving zero payments in a month) as claimants, distorting trend comparisons.
Universal Credit Reclassification Inflates Totals
- Universal Credit reclassified many people who previously received tax credits or housing support as 'out-of-work' claimants even when their situation was similar.
- Ben Baumberg-Geiger estimates this reclassification adds over a million people to the out-of-work claimant numbers.
Spending Trends Don't Mirror Claimant Counts
- Total spending on non-pensioner welfare as a share of GDP is similar now to 2015, despite headline rises in some benefit categories.
- Increases in health/disability spending have been offset by falls in other working-age and child-related benefits.