Riskgaming

Radical Uncertainty, Rapid Learning and the Success Equation for Catching Up

Aug 21, 2024

Paul Collier, a renowned economist focused on global inequality, discusses his new book addressing the plight of neglected areas. He delves into the economic decline of cities like Detroit, advocating for civic leadership and community collaboration as essential for recovery. Collier also explores how evolutionary economics offers fresh perspectives on aiding communities, stressing the importance of understanding radical uncertainty and rapid learning. His insights challenge traditional approaches by emphasizing local empowerment and the need for adaptive leadership in tackling economic challenges.

47:29

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Episode guests

Paul Collier

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Quick takeaways

Effective recovery from economic decline requires local agency and good leadership to unite communities towards collaborative goals.

Addressing radical uncertainty through tailored, community-driven solutions fosters resilience and revitalizes left-behind areas, moving beyond external impositions.

Deep dives

Understanding Economic Downturns

Economic downturns often stem from adverse shocks that affect specific industries and communities. Examples such as Detroit’s decline due to automotive industry changes and Sheffield’s struggles highlight how these areas were once prosperous but fell into decline. Instead of recovering over time as traditional economic theories suggest, these regions experience a downward spiral that amplifies their difficulties. Consequently, local economies can become trapped in a cycle where market forces fail to restore balance, leaving them vulnerable to ongoing decline.

Intro

4min

The Decline and Resilience of Struggling Cities

8min

Exploring Collective Behavior through Risk Gaming

1min

Cooperation and Leadership in Community Development

15min

Navigating Radical Uncertainty in Leadership and Strategy

5min

Decentralized Leadership and Local Empowerment

15min

Global inequality has grown over the past two decades, concentrating an enormous amount of wealth and power on an elite number of individuals, cities, regions and nations all while stranding the vast masses to ignominy and penury. Yet, history is replete with examples of people and places that have caught up — and in some cases even surpassed — once foregone winners, begging the question: how should those left behind today work to catch up?

That’s the question that Paul Collier addresses in his new book, “Left Behind: A New Economics for Neglected Places.” Collier is a long-time development economist who has diligently brought the spotlight onto the most impoverished people in the world, calling attention to what he famously dubbed the “bottom billion.” With his new book, he explores why some places that were once terrifically wealthy — think Detroit in America — have fallen behind economically, and what steps are needed to overcome that stagnation.

With host Danny Crichton, Collier talks about the economic reversals of places around the world, why evolutionary economics and contributive justice offer new lenses on the problem, how addressing radical uncertainty through rapid learning suggests a path forward, and why global development institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund remain so recalcitrant in their approaches to aid, particularly in offering agency to those affected by their decisions.

Produced by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Christopher Gates⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Music by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠George Ko⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠