BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast 2026 Home Price Predictions: The Correction Continues?
Dec 8, 2025
What will home prices look like in 2026? Predictions hinge on affordability, which is affected by wages, home prices, and mortgage rates. Experts discuss the potential for a housing correction, outlining possible scenarios for the future. An intriguing 'X factor' could drive prices higher if conditions shift. Meanwhile, investment strategies focus on seizing current opportunities despite uncertainty, emphasizing long-term cash flow and conservative underwriting. The market is poised for change, and now might be the time to act.
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Affordability Is The Market's Key Lever
- Affordability is the single biggest driver of the housing market today.
- It combines home prices, mortgage rates, and wages into one decisive variable.
Underwrite Without Counting On Appreciation
- Do not count on appreciation in 2026 when underwriting deals.
- Plan for flat or modestly negative nominal prices and underwrite conservatively.
Nominal Flatness Can Still Mean Real Declines
- Even if nominal prices stay flat, real (inflation-adjusted) prices will likely fall.
- Inflation makes small nominal gains still equate to real declines in home value.