Russia as a Strategic Threat: Ukraine, NATO, and Beyond Europe
Oct 19, 2023
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In this engaging discussion, Paul Schwartz, a non-resident senior associate with CSIS, and John Deni, a research professor at the U.S. Army War College, delve into Russia's military decline due to sanctions and the war in Ukraine. They explore how equipment shortages affect Russia's operational capabilities and pose strategic challenges for NATO. The conversation also touches on the dynamics of Russian and Chinese interests, along with recommendations for enhancing U.S. military support for Ukraine amidst evolving global tensions.
Sanctions and equipment shortages significantly hinder Russia's military capabilities, affecting its operations in Ukraine and global arms sales.
NATO's evolving strategy aims to enhance deterrence and defense in vulnerable regions, emphasizing support for Ukraine amid changing dynamics.
The complex relationship between Russia and China raises concerns about future military alignments, impacting overall strategic balances in global affairs.
Deep dives
Impact of Military Equipment Shortages
The ongoing war in Ukraine has severely affected Russia's military capabilities, specifically regarding its equipment and ammunition shortages. A detailed report indicates that crucial weapon categories including tanks, artillery, drones, and electronic warfare systems have been significantly impacted. The Kremlin's ability to sustain military operations has been hindered by these losses, which is exacerbated by sanctions and production limitations. Consequently, Russia has resorted to pulling older Soviet-era equipment from storage, leading to a decline in the overall quality and effectiveness of its military assets.
Consequences for Offensive Operations
While Russia has struggled with offensive operations due to extensive equipment losses, it has managed to maintain a defensive posture relatively effectively. Heavy losses in tanks and armored vehicles have diminished its capabilities for combined arms maneuvers. However, the use of drones remains a strong point for Russia, allowing it to sustain aerial operations, although challenges persist in artillery due to ammunition shortages. As a result, the dynamics of the battlefield have shifted, allowing Ukrainian forces to level the playing field through consistent Western support and supply.
Potential for Future Russian Operations
Assessments indicate that while Russia currently faces significant challenges, it retains the capability to conduct limited military operations in regions such as Central Asia and the Caucasus. Previous interventions in Kazakhstan and Syria show that Russia can mobilize forces, but larger conventional operations, particularly against NATO, would be more difficult due to its current limitations. The ability to launch such operations would depend heavily on Russia's success in reconstituting its forces over time and addressing its substantial losses in Ukraine. However, any ambitions for large-scale offensives against NATO allies are deemed unlikely in the immediate future.
NATO and the U.S. Response Strategy
In light of the evolving military landscape, NATO and the U.S. are urged to adapt their strategies proactively to address the changing nature of the threat posed by Russia. This includes enhancing deterrence and defense initiatives in regions at risk, such as the Baltic states, where the immediate threat has diminished. Moreover, the alliance is encouraged to bolster its military capabilities through investment and enhanced cooperation with Eastern European nations. Continued support for Ukraine is essential, not only to strengthen its defenses but to ensure that Russia remains heavily engaged, thus limiting its capacity to project power elsewhere.
Role of China in Russia's Strategic Equation
The relationship between Russia and China has gained significant attention, particularly concerning the potential for an authoritarian alliance amidst growing international tensions. Russia's reliance on partnerships with countries like Iran and North Korea raises concerns about how this could alter military balances in the future. Despite some collaboration, China continues to proceed cautiously regarding providing extensive military support to Russia, primarily due to its economic interests. The evolving dynamics suggest that while China may hesitate to openly fortify Russia’s military capabilities, any shift in this relationship could alter the strategic landscape significantly.
Long-Term Military and Economic Consequences
The long-term impact of the war on both Russian military capabilities and its economic conditions is difficult to predict. If the conflict persists, Russia's military modernization efforts and its nuclear capabilities will likely remain a focal point, leading to strategic recalibrations within NATO and U.S. defense policies. Furthermore, the war has highlighted the critical need for NATO to remain vigilant and adaptable as challenges may arise not only from Russia but from broader geopolitical alliances, including with China. Ultimately, the focus must remain on fostering a cohesive transatlantic defense framework that can respond to these emerging threats effectively.
This conversation was recorded as a CSIS event on September 18, 2023. Max sat down with Lisa Aronsson, John Deni, and Paul Schwartz, to examine how sanctions-induced limits on Russia's defense industrial capacity have been impacting, and will continue to impact, Russia's ability to wage war on Ukraine, counter NATO, and remain a major actor in global arms sales. The panelists discussed the findings of recent reports they authored for CSIS, which are included in the show notes below.
