Max Rodenbeck, the Israel-Palestine director at Crisis Group, provides expert insights on Israel's return to military action. Mairav Zonszein discusses Israeli public sentiment towards the government's response to the hostage crisis, while Amjad Iraqi highlights the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza. Michael Wahid Hanna analyzes U.S. support for Israel's campaign amidst a shifting Middle East policy. They delve into the complexities of negotiating peace, the role of Hamas, and the mounting pressures on both Palestinians and Israelis.
The breakdown of the Gaza ceasefire highlights the deteriorating humanitarian conditions for Palestinians amidst renewed Israeli military operations and blockades.
Israel's internal political pressures have led to a hardline stance against Hamas, complicating efforts for a diplomatic resolution amidst military escalations.
The U.S. administration's inconsistent approach to the Middle East conflict raises doubts about its commitment to fostering long-term peace negotiations in the region.
Deep dives
Collapse of the Ceasefire
The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas that had provided Gaza with a brief respite ended in renewed violence. Initially established in January 2023 after prolonged conflict, the ceasefire aimed for a phased approach involving hostage exchanges and military withdrawals. However, negotiations faltered as Israel demanded further hostages' release before any extended peace efforts, causing tensions to escalate. By mid-March, Israeli airstrikes resumed, signaling a return to hostilities and reflecting the breakdown of diplomatic discussions between the two factions.
US Position in Middle East Conflict
The Trump administration’s approach to the ongoing conflict appears inconsistent, having initially supported the ceasefire but now backing Israel’s renewed military operations. While American pressure was instrumental in reaching the January ceasefire, the administration seems reluctant to advocate for its continuation amid the resurgence of hostilities. Conflicting statements from Trump and other officials highlight confusion over the US's intended role in the region, complicating efforts to mediate a solution. This shift raises questions about the US's commitment to long-term peace negotiations amid escalating violence.
Internal Israeli Politics and Military Strategy
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu faces political pressure from far-right factions within his coalition, leading to a hardline stance against Hamas. The absence of significant hostage releases and Hamas’s continuing governance in Gaza has prompted calls for a military response rather than diplomatic resolution. Critics highlight the government's failure to transition from the temporary ceasefire to a substantive peace agreement, resulting in increased military actions instead. This internal dynamic reveals the complications in reaching consensus on Israel’s future actions in Gaza and negotiating a long-term strategy.
Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza
The situation for Gazans has become dire, with three weeks of blockades leading to severe shortages of food, water, and medical supplies. Israeli military operations have intensified, and the impacts from airstrikes have worsened the humanitarian crisis, leaving countless families displaced and with no adequate shelter. Ongoing violence has compounded the existing infrastructure challenges, and humanitarian workers face severe limitations in delivering essential aid amidst the conflict. The combination of military actions and blockades highlights the precarious living conditions that the population continues to endure.
Path Forward and Regional Implications
Amid escalating tensions, discussions about Gaza's future remain fraught with challenges, as international plans for reconstruction and governance fail to gain traction. Recent proposals lack clarity on addressing security concerns, with continued calls for disarmament of non-state actors like Hamas. The interplay between Israeli military actions and regional dynamics, including US involvement, complicates prospects for peace. Without substantial diplomatic engagement and a clear framework for negotiations, the path forward for both Israel and Hamas remains uncertain, raising concerns for further regional instability.
In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Max Rodenbeck, Mairav Zonszein, Amjad Iraqi and Michael Wahid Hanna to discuss the breakdown of the Gaza ceasefire, the likely effect on Palestinians in Gaza and the goals of both Israel’s renewed military campaign and the U.S. strikes on the Houthis in Yemen. Richard first talks to Max, Mairav and Amjad about Israel’s return to war, including its retreat from a three-phase ceasefire deal it struck with Hamas in January. They examine Israeli views of the war, including the growing public anger at the government’s handling of the hostage crisis and the resumption of the war. They also explore Hamas’s strength in Gaza, the humanitarian catastrophe in the enclave and the possible futures of governance in the strip. Richard then speaks to Michael, Crisis Group’s U.S. Program Director, about the Trump administration’s emerging Middle East policy, as the U.S. backs Israel's campaign in Gaza, strikes the Houthis in Yemen and steps up pressure on Iran, even as the president signals he wants to enter nuclear talks with Tehran.
