What does Lebanon's new government mean for Hezbollah?
Feb 9, 2025
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David Wood, a senior Lebanon analyst at the International Crisis Group, Lorenzo Trombetta from ANSA, and military expert Elijah Magnier dive into Lebanon's pivotal shift with a new government sidelining Hezbollah. They discuss the implications for Hezbollah's political influence and military strategy amid changing regional dynamics. The trio examines Lebanon's sectarian politics, the new government's challenges in governance reform, and the critical socio-economic issues facing the nation, signaling a potential new era in Lebanese politics.
Hezbollah's political power has waned significantly with the new government formation, indicating a shift in Lebanon's political alliances and landscape.
The group's future strategies are constrained by geopolitical dynamics and internal stability, as it seeks to navigate pressure from Iran and maintain its support base.
Deep dives
Hezbollah's Diminished Influence in Government
Hezbollah's political influence in Lebanon has significantly declined with the formation of a new government that does not include its direct representation. Despite backing five Shia ministers, Hezbollah's traditional alliances have shifted, losing key Christian allies that previously bolstered its position. This change reflects an evolving political landscape, as Hezbollah seeks to maintain relevance while navigating the complexities of a diverse government. The group still manages to exert influence through its allies, indicating that while it is not the dominant force it once was, it retains strategic adaptability.
Internal and External Dynamics Facing Hezbollah
The discussion around Hezbollah's future highlights its constrained military and political strategies, particularly amid international pressures and regional dynamics. Currently, the group appears focused on internal stability and rebuilding efforts, opting not to engage militarily either internally or against Israel. The lack of immediate threats from Israel due to the government's fragile tenure until May 2026 further emphasizes Hezbollah's reluctance to utilize its weapons against internal actors. Additionally, the group is wary of harming its Shia support base, particularly given the ongoing issues of displacement and economic recovery.
The Impact of Regional Power Shifts on Hezbollah
Hezbollah's fate is intricately tied to broader geopolitical shifts, notably the changing dynamics between Iran, Israel, and the United States. While Hezbollah retains some operational independence, the group's decisions are influenced by Iran's strategic interests and the ongoing negotiations regarding U.S.-Iran relations. With Iran focused on domestic and diplomatic issues, Hezbollah's ability to operate as a political and military force is challenged. Moreover, the likelihood of Hezbollah's emergence as a predominant political power is lessened by regional pressures and diminishing support both from Iran and its own local constituencies.
Lebanon's president has named a new administration sidelining Hezbollah for the first time in decades. But where does this leave the group and its allies who have long played a major political role? And will this move usher in what the Prime Minister calls a government of reform and salvation?
In this Episode:
David Wood, Senior Lebanon Analyst, International Crisis Group.
Lorenzo Trombetta, Senior Analyst, Italian News Agency ANSA.
Elijah Magnier, Independent Military Analyst who specialises in the Middle East.
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