#165 – Anders Sandberg on war in space, whether civilisations age, and the best things possible in our universe
Oct 6, 2023
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Anders Sandberg, a senior research fellow at Oxford's Future of Humanity Institute, dives into deep futuristic concepts. He discusses the potential of space warfare and how distance might provide a defensive advantage in galactic conflicts. The conversation touches on the viability of life beyond Earth—comparing machines and biology—and the fate of civilizations, pondering their resilience and potential for decay. Additionally, Anders explores the ethical frameworks for maximizing value in advanced civilizations and the universe's ultimate fate, driven by entropy.
The attacker-versus-defender advantage in future space warfare is influenced by distance and the ability to avoid hits.
The book 'Grand Futures' explores what civilizations can achieve in the universe, considering wealth accumulation, sustainability, and colonization.
Engineering challenges, such as collision risks and radiation protection, limit the spread of complex life across galaxies.
The concept of living in a simulation lacks actionable information for decision-making and has little insight into future possibilities.
Anthropic biases impact our understanding of the world and can lead to false perspectives and conclusions.
Claims of alien visitation should be critically analyzed, considering plausible alternative explanations.
Deep dives
The presence of a time constant for the collapse of civilizations
The podcast discusses the idea of a time constant for the collapse of civilizations. It suggests that civilizations probably collapse due to bad luck rather than a gradual build-up of problems. The main question explored is whether bad luck is intrinsic or caused by unlikely events. The importance of having backup civilizations to ward off bad luck is highlighted.
The vision and purpose of the book 'Grand Futures'
The podcast introduces the book 'Grand Futures' which aims to explore what living things might be able to accomplish in the universe given our current understanding of physics. The book explores various possibilities and limitations for civilizations, such as the amount of wealth they can accumulate, their sustainability on Earth and in space, and the colonization of the solar system and galaxy. The book also delves into questions of values and the potential for new forms of value to emerge in the future.
Impediments to spreading across the universe
The podcast discusses the engineering challenges and impediments that complex life, including machine intelligence, might face when trying to spread across the galaxy and even between galaxies. Challenges such as the risk of collisions with dust particles at high velocities, the ability to maintain ultra-reliable systems over long periods of time, and the need for advanced shielding to protect against radiation are explored.
The possibility of living in a simulation
The concept of living in a simulation is mentioned, but it is deemed to be not useful from a decision-making perspective. The podcast discusses that even if one assumes we are in a simulation, it doesn't provide any actionable information. The simulation argument is also connected to existential risks and the ethical aspects of simulating conscious minds. It is concluded that the simulation argument does not provide much insight into decision-making or future possibilities.
Understanding anthropic arguments and biases
Anthropic arguments explore the biases and selection biases that exist when considering observations and experiences. These biases can impact our understanding of the world and can lead to false perspectives and conclusions.
Evaluating claims of alien visitation and unidentified aerial phenomena
Claims of alien visitation and unidentified aerial phenomena are often met with skepticism. While there might be credible sources and evidence, it is important to critically analyze and consider alternative explanations, including natural phenomena, optical illusions, or even pranks.
Exploring the longevity and collapse of civilizations
The lifespan of civilizations is a topic of interest, and researchers have examined theories on societal decay and collapse. However, studies suggest that collapse is not necessarily inevitable for civilizations as the risk of collapse does not increase with time. Collapses may be driven by factors such as bad luck or external events rather than an inherent decline.
The upper limit of value and its relation to matter and information
The concept of value and its upper limit can be explored in relation to matter and information. While matter and energy can be used to encode and process information, there is a finite limit to the amount of information that can be stored and processed given a specific amount of matter. This suggests that there is a maximum capacity for value representation and that different entities may have different subjective valuations.
Importance of Virtuous Civilization
It is important to ascribe virtues to civilizations, such as maintaining internal peace and prudence in researching existential risks.
Ontological Ethics and Consequentialism
The ontological case suggests that there are rules and principles that civilizations should not break, while consequentialism aims to maximize utility. Virtue ethics can be challenging to apply on a large scale.
The Future of the Universe and Virtue Ethics
An advanced civilization might discover new virtues, such as caring for solar systems and stars, or some unknown post-human virtues. The expansion of the universe and the risk of astronomical suffering pose ethical dilemmas.
Humble Futures and Cosmopolitan Ethics
While many envision grand futures with galactic exploration, there is value in creating sustainable and peaceful humble futures, resembling peaceful villages. However, reconciling different visions and values can be challenging in a cosmopolitan ethics framework.
"Now, the really interesting question is: How much is there an attacker-versus-defender advantage in this kind of advanced future?
Right now, if somebody's sitting on Mars and you're going to war against them, it's very hard to hit them. You don't have a weapon that can hit them very well. But in theory, if you fire a missile, after a few months, it's going to arrive and maybe hit them, but they have a few months to move away. Distance actually makes you safer: if you spread out in space, it's actually very hard to hit you.
So it seems like you get a defence-dominant situation if you spread out sufficiently far. But if you're in Earth orbit, everything is close, and the lasers and missiles and the debris are a terrible danger, and everything is moving very fast.
So my general conclusion has been that war looks unlikely on some size scales but not on others." — Anders Sandberg
In today’s episode, host Rob Wiblin speaks with repeat guest and audience favourite Anders Sandberg about the most impressive things that could be achieved in our universe given the laws of physics.
