Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez Ep. 373: Jon Turek on the 'Owl' Fed, the US Treasury's Bond Buybacks, and AI Capex Durability
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Aug 28, 2026 
Jon Turek, founder and CEO of JST Advisors and former Brevan Howard portfolio manager, shares sharp global macro reads. He breaks down the 'Owl' Fed’s political optimization, the Treasury buyback signaling and market pushback, and why AI capex looks like a durable, trillion-dollar fiscal‑style wave. He also covers rising long yields, dollar and intervention risks, Europe’s China tariff threat, and a steady simmer in oil.
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Committee Voices Will Drive Fed Messaging
- Influence on Warsh will come from which committee voices resonate, making regional presidents and select governors outsized indicators.
- He thinks politically and will manage diverse views rather than dominate like a Draghi or Bernanke.
AI CapEx Is Propping Up US Nominal Growth
- US nominal growth looks strong because AI CapEx is now a large, concentrated driver rather than broad consumption alone.
- That makes the economy more resilient to left-tail slowdowns unless AI financing abruptly collapses.
Treat Hyperscaler AI Spend As A Trillion Dollar Fiscal Program
- Hyperscaler AI spending is behaving like a fiscal program: concentrated, politically important, and plausibly >$1tn across firms and governments.
- That raises both right-tail upside and a bigger left-tail CapEx bust risk if financing or returns change.