Expectations for the U.S. Economy in 2024

As we head into 2024, there is uncertainty surrounding the trajectory of the U.S. economy. Factors such as the refinancing of corporate debt, variable rate bank debt for small businesses, and the contrasting situations of high-end and lower-end consumers will play a role in shaping the economic landscape. Additionally, the tightening lending from banks and the need for the government to roll a significant amount of federal debt in the next year contribute to the potential challenges. While a classic recession is not in the base case, a modest pressure on economic growth and inflation is anticipated, resulting in single-digit equity returns and a relatively unexciting market.