NAB Morning Call Tariffs are back. How hard will Trump go?
Jul 6, 2025
Ray Attrill, NAB's market strategist, dives into the whirlwind of market volatility sparked by new US tariffs. He discusses the unfolding uncertainty as negotiations commence with 18 nations and anticipates a turbulent week in financial markets. Attrill also examines OPEC+'s decision to boost oil production, hinting at a shift in pricing strategies. The conversation touches on Australian consumer spending trends and the looming rate decisions from the RBA and RBNZ, all while contemplating the broader implications for global economic stability.
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Trump's Tariffs Letters Approach
- Donald Trump plans to send letters to US trading partners detailing tariff rates, possibly reinstating high tariffs from Liberation Day.
- The deadline for these tariffs to apply is August 1st, allowing a negotiation window, but causing market uncertainty.
OPEC+ Strategic Oil Output Increase
- OPEC+ plans to increase oil output substantially to capture more market share amid global economic optimism.
- This move can pressure US shale drilling by potentially lowering oil prices below profitability.
UK's Lower Neutral Rate Possible
- Bank of England MPC member Alan Taylor suggests UK's natural interest rate could be as low as 2.75%.
- This signals potential for multiple rate cuts to ease UK debt concerns, contrasting with other MPC views.