Lawfare Daily: Recent Elections and the State of Democracy in Tunisia
Oct 22, 2024
auto_awesome
Sarah Yerkes, a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, and Sabina Henneberg, a Soref Fellow at the Washington Institute, dive into the troubling state of democracy in Tunisia. They discuss the recent elections where President Kais Saied claimed a staggering 91% of the vote amidst widespread skepticism. The duo highlights the erosion of civil liberties, the fractured political landscape, and the chilling consequences for democratic institutions. They also analyze the U.S. response and Tunisia's geopolitical shifts, painting a grim picture for the country's future.
The recent elections in Tunisia were controlled to ensure President Kais Saied's power consolidation, reflecting a significant erosion of democratic principles.
Despite the repression of dissent, Tunisia's civil society continues to operate, showcasing resilience amid a challenging authoritarian environment.
Deep dives
The Rise of Authoritarianism in Tunisia
The political landscape in Tunisia has shifted dramatically since the election of President Kais Saied in 2019, culminating in a self-initiated coup in 2021 that drastically eroded the democratic institutions established after the Arab Spring. Saied capitalized on a series of crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic, economic collapse, and political paralysis, to consolidate power and limit parliamentary authority. This consolidation included freezing parliament and creating a new constitution that grants him extraordinary powers, thus dismantling a decade of democratic progress. The significance of these changes is underscored by the rapid decline in political engagement and public confidence, leading to a largely unchallenged authoritarian regime.
Elections Under Duress: A Controlled Political Contest
The recent presidential elections in Tunisia reflected a carefully controlled political environment orchestrated by Saied, undermining the principles of free and fair elections. The Independent National Elections Commission, now filled with Saied's loyalists, oversaw a process where potential candidates faced significant barriers to entry, including stringent legal requirements and manipulation of candidacy approvals. This led to an election characterized by an overwhelmingly low turnout and widespread contention, with Saied claiming 90% of the votes cast. Such a scenario highlights the extraordinary measures taken to ensure his electoral 'victory,' further entrenching his grip on power and stifling dissent.
The Impact on Civil Society and Freedoms
Since taking office, President Saied's administration has enacted policies that significantly undermine civil liberties, including freedom of expression and political dissent. Political opposition has faced severe repression, with many activists jailed, which has created a chilling environment for civic engagement. Instances of ordinary citizens being arrested for minor mistakes reflect a broader trend of governmental overreach and intimidation. Despite these challenges, civil society organizations continue to operate, demonstrating resilience, although they are increasingly wary of the looming threat posed by Saied's regime.
Tunisia's Foreign Relations and Future Outlook
Tunisia's evolving political climate poses significant challenges for its foreign relations, particularly with the United States, which has historically supported its democratic transition. The Biden administration has struggled with how to respond to Saied's authoritarian turn, cautiously refraining from endorsing his electoral win. As Tunisia faces economic turmoil and potential civil unrest, there are concerns that Saied's regime may further entrench its power through increased repression. Moving forward, international partners are left navigating a complex landscape, seeking to influence positively without exacerbating the situation.
For today's episode, Lawfare Senior Editor Scott R. Anderson sat down with Sarah Yerkes, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Sabina Henneberg, the Soref Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Peace, to discuss recent elections in Tunisia, which saw increasingly authoritarian President Kais Saied returned to office with a purported 91% of the vote. They discussed the elections' lack of credibility, how they have been received by U.S. and other foreign officials, and what they say about the trajectory of democracy, both in Tunisia and elsewhere in the Middle East.
