The Gray Area with Sean Illing

The War in Ukraine, Explained — Part 4: The future of Europe

Apr 21, 2022
Ivan Krastev, a political scientist and chairman of the Centre for Liberal Strategies, discusses the profound impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Europe. He highlights Germany's dramatic shift from pacifism to military investment and the challenges to EU unity posed by differing responses from Poland and Hungary. The conversation also dives into Europe's struggle with its democratic ideals versus its colonial past. Krastev provides insights on how these dynamics will reshape Europe's identity and its geopolitical relationships with the U.S. and China.
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INSIGHT

Europe's Response

  • Three factors shaped Europe's reaction: disbelief in major war, self-blame for appeasement, and reliance on US support.
  • Unified public outrage and swift government action arose, but long-term implications remain uncertain.
INSIGHT

Germany's Rearmament

  • Germany's shift away from pacifism wasn't solely due to the invasion; debates about rearmament had been ongoing.
  • Public outrage and pressure from Eastern European neighbors catalyzed the change, alongside concerns about US reliability.
INSIGHT

Risk of Nuclear Escalation

  • Russia's poor military performance might paradoxically increase the risk of tactical nuclear weapon use due to Putin's vulnerability.
  • Germany's rearmament aims to address Eastern European security concerns and prepare for potential US policy shifts.
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