Lawfare Archive: Greg Johnsen and Scott Anderson on the Fight Against the Houthis
May 3, 2025
auto_awesome
Gregory Johnsen, an expert on Yemen and the Houthi movement, joins Scott R. Anderson to discuss the recent surge in Houthi attacks on shipping and military forces in the Red Sea. They delve into the U.S. and U.K. military responses and the legal complexities surrounding these actions, including the War Powers Resolution. The conversation highlights the implications of these attacks on global trade, the Houthis' strategic gains amidst conflict, and the persistent challenges of engaging with non-state actors in the region.
The recent U.S.-U.K. airstrikes against Houthi targets represent a significant escalation aimed at protecting vital international shipping routes amidst rising Houthi aggression.
Legal discussions surrounding the airstrikes highlight contentious interpretations of self-defense under both U.S. domestic and international law, raising questions about congressional authorization.
The Houthis have strategically used military attacks to bolster domestic support and navigate regional dynamics, complicating international responses to their actions.
Deep dives
U.S.-U.K. Airstrikes on Houthi Targets
The recent U.S.-U.K. airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen marked a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict, representing the first such operation since President Trump took office. In a swift response to over 27 Houthi attacks on commercial shipping and U.S. forces in the Red Sea, these strikes targeted multiple sites controlled by the Houthis, demonstrating a commitment to protecting international shipping routes. The U.S. and U.K. forces launched approximately 150 munitions against nearly 30 Houthi sites, intensifying the fight against a group that has increasingly threatened not only regional stability but also global trade. This military action underscores the growing concern over the Houthi's capacity to disrupt vital shipping lanes, which are critical for global commerce.
Legal Justifications for Military Action
The strikes prompted discussions about the legal framework justifying military action under both U.S. domestic and international law. U.S. officials articulated that the airstrikes were conducted under Article II authority, allowing the President to act in self-defense without explicit congressional authorization, particularly in light of recent Houthi aggression. Internationally, the strikes were framed as acts of self-defense against armed attacks from a non-state actor, emphasizing the U.S. stance on preemptive action to neutralize threats. However, the legality of such actions remains contested, with critics arguing that sufficient consultation and authorization from Congress were not sought prior to military engagement.
Impacts of Houthi Attacks on Global Trade
The series of Houthi attacks has significantly disrupted global trade, particularly affecting merchant shipping routes crucial for international commerce. With an estimated 12 to 18 percent of global shipping passing through the Red Sea, these threats have forced many vessels to divert around Africa, leading to increased shipping times and costs. The instability in the region has escalated insurance rates for maritime operations, causing a ripple effect across various markets. Such disruptions not only challenge the economic interests of countries reliant on these routes but also raise concerns about the Houthis’ ability to wield influence over international trade through military aggression.
Potential Consequences of Escalation
The escalation of U.S. military action raises concerns about the potential for a protracted conflict reminiscent of past interventions in the Middle East. Experts have noted that increased airstrikes are unlikely to eliminate the Houthi threat or restore stability, as the group has shown resilience and adaptability over years of conflict. If the Houthis retaliate against U.S. or allied shipping or launch broader attacks, it could lead to a cycle of military responses with no clear end in sight. The lack of a coherent strategy for dealing with the Houthis poses a dilemma for U.S. policymakers, complicating efforts to address both immediate threats and long-term stability in the region.
Houthi Strategy and Regional Implications
The Houthis have leveraged the conflict strategically, using attacks to bolster domestic support while drawing attention to the regional dynamics of the conflict, particularly in light of the situation in Gaza. Their relationship with Iran allows them to absorb external pressures while maintaining a narrative of resistance against foreign intervention. Furthermore, amidst declining domestic support due to economic challenges, the Houthis may believe that escalating tensions with the U.S. could rally support against a common enemy. This manipulation of regional conflicts demonstrates their ability to navigate complex geopolitical landscapes to achieve their local and political objectives, complicating any international response.
From January 16, 2024: Over the last two months, Houthi militants have waged more than 27 attacks against merchant shipping and U.S. and partner forces in the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, purportedly in response to the war in Gaza. These attacks have significantly disrupted global shipping and surged the Middle East into an even more precarious security situation. Following a large-scale Houthi attack on U.S. and British ships, the U.S. and U.K. on Jan. 11 launched over 150 munitions targeting almost 30 Houthi sites in Yemen. The U.S. on Jan. 12 carried out another strike on a Houthi radar facility. The Houthis have since retaliated with multiple strikes targeting U.S. forces. Yesterday, the Houthis for the first time successfully struck a cargo ship owned and operated by the United States.
Lawfare Research Fellow Matt Gluck sat down with Gregory Johnsen, the Associate Director of the Institute for Future Conflict at the U.S. Air Force Academy and Lawfare Senior Editor Scott R. Anderson to discuss the spate of Houthi attacks, the U.S. response and the associated domestic and international law questions, and where the fighting is likely to go from here. What can history tell us about the possible paths forward? Why did the U.S. act when it did? What’s in it for the Houthis? They chewed over these questions and more.
