Are We in a Bubble? Breaking Down AI, Down Rounds, and the Future of Venture Capital with Peter Walker of Carta

In this episode of Tank Talks, Matt Cohen sits down with Peter Walker, Head of Insights at Carta, to explore the current state of the venture capital ecosystem and emerging startup trends. Peter shares his expertise on the challenges of navigating today's venture market, including how data-driven insights are shaping decision-making for both founders and investors.

With his wealth of experience at Carta, Peter discusses the rise of down rounds, the impact of AI on valuations, and the complexities of stacking safes in early-stage fundraising. He also delves into the unique dynamics of later-stage companies, from unicorns struggling with inflated valuations to the evolving landscape of acquisitions and secondary markets.

The conversation offers crucial insights on how investors are adapting to the changing market, and how founders should approach funding, cap table management, and navigating the growing emphasis on AI. Whether you're a founder, investor, or LP, this episode is packed with actionable takeaways on venture capital, startup growth, and the future of private tech companies.

The Data Visualization Journey (00:03:25)

Peter discusses his passion for data and how his experience with visualizing data led him to work on COVID tracking with The Atlantic.

Joining Carta (00:06:25)

Peter’s transition to Carta and how his role as Head of Insights evolved into a data-driven strategy for the startup ecosystem.

Navigating the 2025 Venture Reset (00:09:00)

Peter breaks down the shifting dynamics in venture capital, including down rounds and how companies and investors should be preparing.

Down Rounds & Valuation Insights (00:12:15)

The challenges startups face with down rounds, and what data from Carta reveals about current market trends in startup valuations.

The Impact of Safes on Founders (00:14:55)

Why Peter believes founders are overusing SAFEs and the long-term consequences for cap tables and company growth.

AI's Role in the Venture Landscape (00:17:47)

Peter discusses how the AI boom is reshaping venture markets and influencing startup valuations, especially for non-AI companies.

Bridge Rounds & the Evolution of Seed Funding (00:21:07)

The rise of seed bridge rounds, preemptive funding, and defensive bridge rounds as VCs try to navigate uncertain valuations.

Unicorns, Acquisitions & the Future of Late-Stage Companies (00:23:47)

What happens to unicorns in a post-boom era, and how acquisitions and down rounds are playing out for companies with inflated valuations.

Navigating Secondary Liquidity & Acquihires (00:30:24)

A deep dive into secondary markets, acquihires, and the growing trend of liquidity for startups as the market matures.

The Future of Venture Capital (00:33:46)

Peter discusses his vision for venture capital in 2030, including the implications of rising AI investments and a more consolidated VC ecosystem.

Founders and VCs in 2030 (00:37:08)

Peter’s predictions for the future of startup funding, with a focus on changing expectations, funding models, and talent acquisition.

About Peter Walker

Peter Walker is the Head of Insights at Carta, where he leads data-driven research on startup trends and venture capital markets. With a strong background in data visualization, Peter has helped shape Carta’s influential market reports, providing insights into valuations, equity distribution, and venture trends. Previously, he contributed to The Atlantic’s COVID-19 tracking project, gaining recognition for his impactful visualizations. At Carta, Peter leverages data from over 45,000 startups to guide founders and investors in making informed decisions, focusing on cap table management and the evolving venture landscape, particularly the influence of AI. His expertise bridges data analytics and clear communication, helping navigate the challenges of raising capital and scaling startups today.

Connect with Peter Walker on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/peterjameswalker/

Visit the Carta website: https://carta.com/

Connect with Matt Cohen on LinkedIn: https://ca.linkedin.com/in/matt-cohen1

Visit the Ripple Ventures website: https://www.rippleventures.com/

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tanktalks.substack.com