Ep 167: Dan Blumenthal and Kyle Balzer on China’s Nuclear Buildup
Dec 24, 2024
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Dan Blumenthal and Kyle Balzer, affiliated with the American Enterprise Institute and co-authors of 'The True Aims of China’s Nuclear Buildup,' dive into China's expanding nuclear capabilities. They analyze the shift in China's nuclear strategy and its implications for U.S. foreign policy. The conversation highlights China's ambitions to reshape global order and discusses the urgent need for a robust American response. The duo also examines the effects on U.S. alliances and the prospects for future trade and nuclear modernization under new leadership.
China's shift from minimum deterrence to an aggressive nuclear strategy significantly alters military dynamics and regional power in the Pacific.
The evolving nature of China's nuclear capabilities challenges U.S. foreign policy and could lead to a reconsideration of security alliances in East Asia.
Deep dives
China's Nuclear Buildup Dynamics
China's recent nuclear buildup marks a significant shift from its historical minimum deterrence posture to a more aggressive and refined nuclear strategy. Previously, China maintained a small arsenal with relatively less advanced intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), but now it is constructing numerous new missile silos equipped with more accurate and longer-range capabilities. This evolution allows China to hold the continental United States at risk and employ precision strikes against military objectives, facilitating a broader military strategy in the Western Pacific without provoking an immediate American response. Such developments signal that China is not only focused on retaliating against potential strikes but is also seeking to assert its influence militarily in the region, thus reshaping the dynamics of power in the Pacific.
American Perceptions and Responses
The American understanding of China's nuclear ambitions has shifted over time, initially downplaying the buildup before recognizing its implications as a response to U.S. actions. As the conversation evolved, some experts argued that China's advancements were merely a reaction to feelings of insecurity provoked by American military presence and alliances in the region. However, evidence suggests that China is actively seeking a sophisticated nuclear posture that goes beyond mere deterrence, aiming for capabilities that assert dominance and reshape regional dynamics. This realization prompts a critical need for the U.S. to adjust its own nuclear strategy and strengthen alliances to address the challenges posed by China's ambitious military goals.
Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy
The implications of China's nuclear strategy extend beyond military capability and directly affect American foreign policy and regional dynamics in East Asia. As China's nuclear capabilities grow, there is potential for coercive diplomacy where nations like Japan and South Korea might question the credibility of U.S. security guarantees, leading them to consider developing their own nuclear arsenals. This scenario could unravel the existing alliance system, drastically altering U.S. influence in the region and resulting in a bifurcation of international relations that could encompass a broader breakdown of the non-proliferation regime. Such developments would not only challenge American economic interests but also risk triggering a new arms race, necessitating a reassessment of strategic postures and bilateral agreements to counter China's aggressive moves.
Dan Blumenthal and Kyle Balzer, co-authors of The True Aims of China’s Nuclear Buildup for Foreign Affairs, join the show to discuss the geopolitical implications of China’s increasing and diversifying nuclear arsenal.