RenMac RenMac Off-Script: Enough Bad to Be Good
8 snips
Oct 31, 2025 
In this insightful discussion, veteran Wall Street journalist Mike Santoli shares his expertise on market resilience despite macro concerns. He reveals how Powell's 'hawkish cut' has impacted mortgage rates and explores the paradox of an AI boom amidst a housing recession. They delve into the dynamics between trend and momentum markets and caution against the risks associated with private credit growth. Additionally, Santoli highlights the shifts in corporate debt due to AI investments and the implications of consumer credit expectations for small businesses.
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Bull Market Strength Masks Concentration Risks
- The bull market's strength coexists with unease about concentration and fragile leadership among a few big names.
- Markets are driven by AI and speculative pockets that feel separate from current macro reality.
Powell's 'Hawkish Cut' Raised Mortgage Rates
- Powell's language created a 'hawkish cut' impression, pushing mortgage rates higher and hurting housing demand.
- Housing recession risks matter more to macro than the AI-led capex boom, per Neil Dutta.
Markets Benefit From A Dovish Fed Without Recession
- The market is enjoying a dovish Fed tilt without the economy showing full recession risk, thanks to labor softness prompting potential cuts.
- That creates a 'just the right amount of wrong' environment favoring risk assets.
