On The Market

The #1 Factor That Leads to Home Price Growth (You CAN Predict This)

Feb 20, 2025

Austin Wolf, an in-house analyst at BiggerPockets known for his expertise in real estate market analysis, reveals the pivotal role of job growth in predicting home price trends. He discusses how job availability influences migration patterns and housing demand. Listeners learn to identify the key metric that signals potential price surges, the importance of analyzing job sectors, and how to leverage local data for investment insights. Discover why this easily found metric is often overlooked by investors!

27:09

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Episode guests

Austin Wolf

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Quick takeaways

Job growth is the primary predictor of real estate market trends, significantly influencing housing demand and price fluctuations.

The interplay between job types and median household income is crucial for investors to determine potential areas with growth opportunities.

Deep dives

The Importance of Job Growth in Real Estate Investment

Tracking job growth is identified as the primary metric for predicting real estate market trends. The correlation between job growth and the demand for housing is strong, as individuals typically move to areas with employment opportunities. Historical examples, such as the transition of Detroit, illustrate how job market fluctuations directly impact population dynamics and housing prices. Consequently, understanding the job market is crucial for investors seeking to identify potential areas for growth before price increases occur.

Intro

3min

Job Growth and Home Prices

4min

The Impact of Job Growth on Real Estate

4min

Impact of Employment on Home Prices

6min

Inflation and Real Estate Insights

5min

Leveraging Local Data for Market Insights

3min

There’s one key housing market factor that leads to home price growth. It doesn’t have to do with interest rates, property taxes, or weather. This single metric is the strongest predictor of your home price rising, staying stagnant, or falling. If you know where this metric is peaking, you can follow a data-driven trail to housing markets that will soon have higher home prices and get in before the masses.

What’s the secret metric we’re talking about?

Well, it’s not so much of a secret. This metric is easy to find online and can help you pinpoint markets with the highest potential for price growth. So, if it’s so easy to find, why isn’t every real estate investor using it? Mainly because most investors don’t know how important this metric is.

But today, we’re showing you exactly how to track where home prices could rise, how to pinpoint the neighborhoods within your market that could experience high price growth, and why this easily available predictive metric may change as the economy shifts.

In This Episode We Cover

The number one way of predicting whether home prices will grow in an area

How this metric strongly influences migration and brings more demand to cities

Where to find this data for free and the easy way to predict home price growth

Trends to start watching now that could foretell which cities will rise (and shrink)

How to find the fast-growing (and stable) neighborhoods to invest in within your city

And So Much More!

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