HousingWire Daily Where are mortgage rates headed now?
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Dec 11, 2025 
Logan Mohtashami, a lead analyst known for his insightful analysis of housing and mortgage markets, joins to discuss the latest twists in the mortgage landscape. He unpacks the Federal Reserve's recent meeting and shifting focus on labor data, which significantly influences bond yields. Logan highlights how negative job revisions and a softening labor market are shaping expectations around mortgage rates. He also examines the connection between jobless claims and future rates, as well as the implications of lower mortgage rates on housing demand.
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Fed Prioritizes Labor Over Inflation
- The Fed pivoted to prioritize labor market weakness over inflation in its December meeting.
- Logan Mohtashami says this admission pushed 10-year yields lower and signals policy is modestly restrictive to neutral.
Policy Near Neutral Limits Cuts
- Logan views current policy as at the upper end of neutral, roughly a 3%–3.25% Fed funds rate.
- He expects only one or two more rate cuts priced into markets unless labor deteriorates further.
Waller Ahead On Labor Weakness
- Logan recounts that dissenters like Christopher Waller correctly flagged labor weakness earlier.
- He credits Waller for being ahead of other Fed officials and influencing a needed course correction.