Macro Mondays Weak U.S. Jobs, Europe in Crisis, & the Oil Setup
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Sep 8, 2025 The hosts delve into the recent weak jobs report, raising eyebrows about the future of rate cuts and market stability. They explore the complexities of the U.S. labor market, revealing slow job growth amid layoffs. Political crises in France, the UK, and Japan are analyzed for their impact on investment strategies. Plus, there’s a spotlight on oil dynamics that could lead to lucrative opportunities. Historical comparisons, especially involving Donald Trump, add a compelling twist to today's economic narrative.
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Labor Market Seen Per Capita
- The US labor market has undergone a tectonic shift due to changing migration, so per-capita measures matter more than headline payrolls.
- Andreas Steno Larsen argues much lower job creation (under ~50k) can now keep unemployment stable because the workforce stopped growing rapidly.
Contrarian Oil Setup
- Oil faces a contrarian setup: OPEC has largely normalized production while positioning is very negative.
- Andreas argues limited latent spare production plus extreme short positioning creates a strong upside risk from current $60–$65 levels.
NFP Double‑Counting Distorts Trend
- Nonfarm payrolls double-count multi-job workers and thus overstate changes when migration shifts drastically.
- Andreas says payroll weakness can be overstated and tax-withheld payroll receipts show nominal growth still exists.