Patrick Kingsley, Jerusalem bureau chief for The New York Times, discusses why Israel is delaying the ground invasion of Gaza, including concerns over hostage extraction, the fear of opening a second front with Hezbollah, the difficulty of penetrating Hamas' tunnel networks, and the potential urban quagmire. The chapter also explores the weighty decision of whether to invade and the potential political implications for Benjamin Netanyahu's government. It highlights the intense Israeli bombing campaign on Gaza and the rising humanitarian crisis, with a shift in global narrative towards concerns about civilian casualties. The podcast also covers discussions on the possibility of a prolonged conflict, journalist presence on the ground, a lawyer pleading guilty, and the chaotic day on Capitol Hill.
The delay in the ground invasion of Gaza is primarily due to ongoing negotiations for the release of Israeli hostages held by Hamas and concerns about opening up a second front with Hezbollah.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's decision to delay the invasion is driven by a desire to ensure a well-planned and supported operation, avoid potential high casualties and political consequences, and protect his own political survival.
Deep dives
Reasons for Delaying Ground Invasion
The delay in the ground invasion of Gaza is primarily due to several factors. One reason is the ongoing negotiations to release more than 200 Israeli hostages held by Hamas in underground fortifications. Mediated talks between Qatar, Egypt, and Hamas are attempting to secure their release. Additionally, there is a concern that a ground invasion could open up a second front with Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia allied with Hamas. Moreover, Hamas is well-dug-in beneath Gaza City, with an extensive network of tunnels that would make an urban ground invasion challenging and potentially result in significant loss of life.
Netanyahu's Calculations
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's decision to delay the invasion is driven by multiple factors. First, historically, Netanyahu tends to delay making significant decisions. The invasion carries the risk of high casualties on both sides and potential political consequences. Considering the failure of Israeli military defenses during the recent attacks, Netanyahu wants to ensure that a ground invasion is well-planned and supported. The involvement of opposition members in the government provides a distribution of responsibility for the decision. Additionally, Netanyahu's political survival may be at stake, as the aftermath of the war could lead to a national inquiry that questions his performance and potentially destabilizes his government.
Public Sentiment and Potential Outcomes
Public sentiment in Israel is divided regarding a ground invasion. While a majority of Israelis support the invasion to remove Hamas, there are varying positions within that majority. Some advocate for a vengeful response, while others are concerned about the loss of life and the potential crisis of legitimacy that the Palestinian Authority would face if it were put in control. The continuous airstrikes have intensified the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, leading to increased questioning of Israel's approach. However, calling off the ground invasion completely would be seen as a capitulation and potentially weaken Israel's image of strength and resolve. The situation remains uncertain, with the possibility of both an invasion or a continued standoff.
Almost immediately after Israel was attacked on Oct. 7, it began preparing for a ground invasion of Gaza, drafting hundreds of thousands of its citizens and amassing forces along its southern border.
But more than two weeks later, that invasion has yet to happen. Patrick Kingsley, the Jerusalem bureau chief for The Times, explains why.
Guest: Patrick Kingsley, the Jerusalem bureau chief for The New York Times.
Background reading:
U.S. advised Israel to delay a Gaza invasion, officials said.
For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily. Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday.
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