Monetary Matters with Jack Farley 2025 = Biggest Bank M&A Year In History? Bank Zhar Brad Rinschler on Credit, CRE, GBank, REIT Pain, and Much Much More
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Feb 3, 2025 Brad Rinschler, managing partner at Down Range Capital, specializes in bank stocks and shares insightful market trends. He discusses his bearish stance on the five banks that failed in 2023 and highlights the promise of small and community banks in 2025. Rinschler dives deep into G-Bank's transformation and emphasizes the potential for a historic year in bank mergers and acquisitions. The conversation also touches on the resilience of community banks amid rising interest rates and the challenges of commercial real estate lending.
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Bearish Stance on Banks
- Rinschler was bearish on banks in 2022-2023 due to rising interest rates impacting securities and loan marks.
- He predicted these "marks" were real losses, not temporary, contrary to popular belief.
Shorting Failed Banks
- Rinschler shorted all five banks that failed in 2023, including Silicon Valley Bank from $749.
- He saw fundamental issues and didn't believe the "marks" were temporary.
Bullish on Community Banks
- Rinschler likes small community banks in 2025 due to their low valuations and high dividends.
- He anticipates increased M&A activity under the new, merger-friendly administration.