Jeff Currie, a commodities expert, discusses why copper is his highest-conviction trade. He delves into the mismatch between short-term prices and long-term supply, the impact of electrification on copper demand, and the outlook for oil. Currie also touches on petrodollars, the surge in copper prices, and the challenges in forecasting supply and demand in the commodities market.
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Quick takeaways
Copper's resurgence is fueled by electrification demand, despite past price dips.
Long-term supply shortages and short-term price fluctuations challenge the copper market.
Deep dives
Copper's Revival Amid Supply Shortages
After experiencing a downturn, copper is back in focus due to the growing demand for electric vehicles and grid electrification. The podcast explores how long lead times for new mines and spot weakness affect copper mining decisions despite long-term demand certainty. The challenge lies in balancing short-term supply fluctuations with long-term needs, especially amidst ESG concerns about mining impacts.
The Structural Supply and Demand Factors in the Copper Market
The podcast discusses a long-term supply constraint in the copper market driven by underinvestment in old economies and redirection of capital to new economies. In contrast, the demand side is bolstered by policies driving commodity consumption among lower income groups, environmental policies stimulating green capex, and the effects of deglobalization contributing to increased military spending.
Factors Influencing the Commodity Super Cycle
The episode delves into historical commodity super cycles to understand the current context, highlighting the challenges in reaching a peak oil demand and transitioning to greener energy sources. It explores the aspects of using sticks versus carrots in environmental regulations and the critical need for political will to drive demand reduction strategies amid rising environmental concerns.
Challenges and Opportunities in the Energy Transition
Jeff Curry discusses the energy pathways group at Carlisle, focusing on transitioning from traditional energy sources to green alternatives. The conversation touches on the complexities of managing the shift, the balancing act between brown and green energy, and the necessity of finding effective pathways to decarbonization amidst evolving market dynamics.
Copper has long been touted as a big winner from the world's drive towards electrification. All those electric vehicles and new grids need lots of the metal to work. At the same time, since it takes years for new copper mining capacity to actually come on stream, many people expect a long-term shortage of the metal to materialize. But despite all that excitement, copper prices actually fell over the past few years. Now, copper bulls are getting another chance as the metal surges towards a new record. So why didn't the thesis play out before? And what does the mismatch between short-term prices and long-term supply actually mean for the world? In this episode, we speak to Jeff Currie, a long-time copper bull and commodities veteran who's now at Carlyle Group. We talk to him about why copper is his highest-conviction trade ever, plus the outlook for oil and big changes in petrodollars.