Guest: Jason Schenker of Prestige Economics with predictions for supply chains in 2025; What will happen with labor pools this year? 'Tis the season of retail returns
Jan 3, 2025
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In this discussion, Jason Schenker, President of Prestige Economics and a leading economist, provides his insights on the U.S. economic landscape and predictions for 2025. He analyzes labor pool challenges in logistics, emphasizing the quest for qualified workers and automation trends. Schenker also tackles the implications of tariffs and geopolitical risks on supply chains. As the peak shipping season transitions into the return season, he highlights innovative approaches retailers are adopting to streamline reverse logistics.
The economic outlook for supply chains in 2025 predicts modest GDP growth, easing inflation, and renewed investment in material handling sectors.
The labor market remains challenged as logistics companies must adapt workforce strategies to address demand for diverse and skilled labor.
Deep dives
Economic Outlook for Supply Chains in 2025
The economic outlook for supply chains in 2025 is expected to show modest GDP growth coupled with a decrease in interest rates. Inflation rates are likely to ease, although there may be a temporary increase at the beginning of the year. By the second quarter, these inflation rates are projected to stabilize and decrease further, positively influencing business investments and manufacturing activities. This optimistic scenario suggests that material handling and supply chain sectors may see renewed spending and investment as economic conditions improve.
Geopolitical Risks and Trade Policies
Geopolitical risks, particularly concerning the U.S.-China relationship, are anticipated to exert significant influence over supply chain strategies. Incoming tariffs targeting key trade partners like Canada and Mexico suggest a potential shift in focus towards mitigating risks associated with Chinese trade. These negotiations may initially serve as a posturing tactic rather than an outright policy shift, indicating a careful approach to the complexities of international relations. Supply chain professionals should prepare for adjustments in inventory strategies and potentially reevaluate their exposure to Chinese trade in light of these ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Labor Pool Trends and E-commerce Growth
The labor market is expected to remain bifurcated, with a notable demand for physically demanding jobs such as those in warehousing and transportation. As e-commerce continues to grow, reaching record levels in retail, there will be increasing opportunities in material handling and logistics to support this expansion. Companies must also adapt their workforce strategies to accommodate shifting demographics and engage diverse talent, including neurodivergent individuals. By embracing new technologies and fostering a flexible workplace environment, businesses can enhance their resilience and effectively respond to labor shortages in the supply chain landscape.
Our guest on this week's episode is Jason Schenker, president of Prestige Economics. Schenker is one of the world's leading economists and he shares his insights into what happened in 2024 with the U.S. economy as well as predictions for 2025. Our discussion includes the economic outlook for supply chains and the material handling industry in particular, inflation, consumer prices, interest rates, employment, and looming tariffs
One of the top themes we covered in the past year was the labor pool, and specifically how employers in the logistics sector have struggled to find either qualified employees for increasingly technical positions, or simple enough at all for even entry level positions for things like warehouse work and truck driving. This week a report was released that identified five workplace trends that are coming up in the new year, and methods for how employers can best adapt.
With peak shipping season behind us, it’s time to move on to peak returns season. We are now in the thick of it when it comes to reverse logistics, as retailers and e-commerce fulfillment companies deal with all those post-holiday gifts coming back. We preview a January story in DC Velocity that reveals that many retailers are rethinking their approaches when it comes to managing their returns processes.
Supply Chain Xchange also offers a podcast series called Supply Chain in the Fast Lane. It is co-produced with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals. A series of ten episodes is now available on the "State of Logistics." The episodes provide in-depth looks into the current states of key transportation modes, such as trucking, rail, air, and ocean. It also looks at inventory management, 3PLs and more. All ten episodes are available to stream now. Go to your favorite podcast platform to subscribe and to listen to past and future episodes. The podcast is also available at www.thescxchange.com.