Jacqueline Deal, President and CEO of the Long Term Strategy Group and a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, discusses the complexities of U.S.-China competition. She reveals how U.S. policies may inadvertently empower China. The conversation dives into China's strategic rivalry, its military mindset resembling early 20th-century Germany, and the critical vulnerabilities in supply chains influencing national security. Deal emphasizes the importance of boosting domestic production to navigate this competitive landscape successfully.
Understanding the net assessment of U.S.-China competition is vital for evaluating strategic goals relative to each nation's capabilities and narratives.
China's belief in its rising influence challenges the U.S., necessitating strategies that address economic interdependence and the manipulation tactics of the Chinese Communist Party.
Deep dives
Understanding Net Assessment
Net assessment involves a relative analysis of competition between entities, measuring how each side is progressing toward its goals. This strategic approach requires understanding both one's own metrics and those of the opponent, which can be challenging given the different perspectives in the U.S. government. The complexity intensifies when stakeholders prioritize their own narratives over understanding the rival's metrics. This innovative analysis is critical in the ongoing competition with China, as U.S. capabilities must be evaluated against the Chinese Communist Party's expectations and strategies.
Perceptions of Winning
China's leadership, particularly Xi Jinping, operates under the belief that the East is rising while the West is declining, as suggested by their assessment metrics. Despite challenges such as demographic issues and economic slowdowns, the Chinese Communist Party perceives a favorable trajectory that bolsters its confidence. This optimism can lead to a miscalculation by the West, as it may not recognize how its policies inadvertently support China's growth. Acknowledging this perception is essential, as it informs both the Chinese leadership's strategies and the U.S. response efforts.
The Impact of Economic Integration
The deep economic interdependence between the U.S. and China complicates the competitive landscape, as it creates vulnerabilities that can be exploited by Beijing. Historical insights suggest that while the U.S. hoped for a cooperative relationship, China's strategic behavior indicated otherwise, including its long-term goal of dominance. This has led to concerns over economic security, particularly when critical supplies are sourced from a geopolitical rival. A reevaluation of economic strategies is necessary to mitigate the risks associated with this entanglement.
China's Strategic Culture and Diplomacy
The Chinese Communist Party's historical strategic culture significantly shapes its modern diplomatic efforts, emphasizing manipulation and infiltration of foreign systems. This contrasts with the more straightforward approach of the Soviet Union, which adeptly exploited democratic dynamics. China's current strategy appears rooted in civilizational messaging that seeks to undermine Western ideals, leveraging alliances in less entrenched democracies. Effective counter-strategies for the West should focus not just on external diplomacy but also on strengthening internal resilience against these sophisticated tactics.