

Lies, damn lies and statistics
35 snips Aug 12, 2025
Chris Giles, an Economics commentator for the Financial Times and expert in data and central banking, discusses the implications of political shifts in the U.S. economy. He delves into the dangers of manipulating labor statistics for political gain and critiques how recent personnel changes at the Federal Reserve could jeopardize its independence. The conversation also explores challenges like inconsistent inflation data and the recent dynamics of the real estate market, offering insights into investment opportunities.
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Payroll Revisions Are Misleading
- Revisions to US non-farm payrolls can be large and misleading when treated in isolation.
- Chris Giles warns markets overreact to recent big downward revisions rather than the broader trend.
Politicising Statistics Risks Trust
- Trump fired the BLS chief after jobs revisions he disliked and installed a loyalist from the Heritage Foundation.
- Giles says politicising statistics risks eroding trust and pushing users to find alternative proxies.
Seek Corroborating Data
- Treat official releases as starting points and seek corroborating evidence when data quality is suspect.
- Look for independent proxies and additional explanations rather than trusting a single headline.