Post-Thanksgiving Market Outlook

In this episode, Coinbase Research dissects the post-Thanksgiving crypto landscape, marked by low liquidity and high volatility. We debate a “trend variant” approach to dollar cost averaging (DCA), explore the implications of the Fed ending quantitative tightening, and the market implications of a highly anticipated December Fed rate cut—stressing that the commentary’s tone will matter more than most meetings. The sell off from concerns over a Bank of Japan hike (leading to an unwind of JPY carry trades) seems to be over for now. We also examine the unsettling trend of AI-driven white-collar layoffs and its effect on the ‘K-shaped economy’. Finally, we dive into bitcoin’s key onchain and technical signals, from long-term holder distribution and bearish options positioning to the critical battle to reclaim the 50-day moving average and the $98K-100K support zone.

Speakers:
David Duong, CFA - Global Head of Investment Research (X: Dav1dDuong)
Colin Basco - Research Associate (X: colin_basco)