Less Noise, More Signal Macro thinker Mel Mattison: The next big driver of this bubble is unlocking financing in US housing
9 snips
Aug 21, 2025 
Mel Mattison, a seasoned writer, investor, and fintech executive with over 25 years in financial infrastructure, discusses the current economic landscape with Pascal Hugli. They delve into the influence of AI on growth, the disconnect between financial markets and the real economy, and the effects of tariffs on inflation. Mel shares insights on housing market dynamics, the implications of rising energy costs, and strategies for navigating market volatility. The conversation wraps up with predictions about interest rates and future investment opportunities.
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AI And Fiscal Stimulus Drive Growth
- Mel Mattison argues AI and fiscal initiatives are the primary drivers of the economy today.
- He warns energy costs tied to AI could be a major inflationary risk that constrains growth.
Tariffs Act Like A Tax Not Traditional Inflation
- Mel frames tariffs as effectively a tax that shifts private capital to government and thus is overall deflationary.
- He expects AI CapEx and depreciation incentives to offset tariff impacts on GDP.
Markets Detached From The Real Economy
- Mega-cap profits and passive flows create dislocation between financial markets and the real economy.
- Mattison calls the S&P structure quasi-Ponzi driven by relentless passive inflows and fiscal support.
