
At Any Rate Global Commodities: China’s LNG demand to peak in early 2030s
Oct 31, 2025
Otar Dgebuadze, a natural gas and LNG market analyst, dives into the dynamics of China's gas market. He discusses how domestic production growth and increased Russian pipeline flows have shaped demand, predicting that LNG demand will peak in 2032. Otar highlights China's impressive regasification infrastructure and potential to transition from an importer to a global trader. The conversation also touches on the impact of China's five-year plan, industrial prioritization, and the future of gas supply through 2035.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
Why 2025 LNG Demand Fell
- Weak 2025 LNG demand reflected milder weather, softer industry activity and strong renewables.
- LNG demand was down ~18% in 2025 due to domestic production growth and Power of Siberia 1 flows.
Industrial Demand Will Drive Growth
- China’s 15th five-year plan and lower global gas prices should drive industrial gas demand growth through 2035.
- J.P. Morgan forecasts industrial demand adds ~117 BCM between 2024–2035 (CAGR ~4.5%).
Gas Is A Balancer, Not Baseload
- Gas will play a balancing role in power rather than large-scale coal-to-gas baseload switching.
- Natural gas share in power should stay around 3–4%, used mainly to balance renewables and peak demand.
