'How Progressives Froze the American Dream' (Live)
Feb 25, 2025
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Yoni Appelbaum, the deputy executive editor of The Atlantic and author of 'Stuck,' discusses the stagnation of the American economy and housing market. He highlights the paradox of low unemployment yet declining hiring rates, revealing how many are working but few are hiring. Yoni outlines the challenges first-time homebuyers face with high interest rates and the record median age of 38. He also addresses the significant drop in migration and how progressive policies have altered the American Dream, ultimately limiting social mobility and opportunities.
The U.S. labor market is experiencing stagnation, with a declining hiring rate despite a low unemployment rate, making job searches increasingly difficult.
Soaring interest rates and systemic barriers are contributing to the median age of first-time homebuyers rising to 38, effectively blocking younger generations from home ownership.
A critical decline in geographic mobility is fostering isolation and inequality, hindering the opportunity for individuals to reshape their identities and improve their circumstances.
Deep dives
The Current State of the U.S. Economy
The U.S. economy is currently characterized by a sense of being 'stuck,' with notable stagnation in both labor and housing markets. Although the unemployment rate is low, job seekers are finding it increasingly challenging to secure positions due to a declining hiring rate. The recent data indicates that the hiring rate is at its lowest level in the 21st century, revealing a discrepancy where many individuals are jobless despite a seemingly robust labor market. This paradox highlights the complexities faced by job seekers as they navigate a landscape that appears to offer employment yet remains restrictive.
Housing Market Stagnation
The housing market is currently facing significant barriers, particularly for younger individuals who find themselves shut out due to consistently high interest rates and rising home prices. The median age of first-time homebuyers has reached an all-time high of 38, reflecting the challenges that younger generations encounter in achieving home ownership. Furthermore, historical mobility trends show a decline, with fewer Americans moving each year compared to previous decades, contributing to an increasingly stagnant housing market. This stagnation not only impacts individual aspirations but also reinforces systemic inequalities within communities.
Decline of Geographic Mobility
The decline in geographic mobility over time is identified as a critical social change in modern America that has profound implications. Historically, high rates of mobility allowed individuals to explore new opportunities and redefine their identities, contributing to upward mobility and a dynamic society. In contrast, the current mobility rate has plummeted from one in three Americans moving annually in the late 19th century to merely one in 14 today. This reduction fosters disconnection among communities, reinforcing feelings of isolation and limiting social progress.
The Historical Context of Housing Policies
A historical examination reveals that U.S. housing policies and zoning laws have evolved significantly over the past century, often shaping the landscape of neighborhood demographics and access to opportunities. The introduction of zoning laws coincided with attempts to segregate communities based on race and class, often under the guise of public safety or health. As these policies proliferated, they institutionalized barriers that limited the movement of underrepresented populations, hindering their access to better living conditions. Understanding this historical context is crucial to addressing the long-standing inequities entrenched within the American housing market.
Future Directions for Housing Abundance
To confront the challenges of housing scarcity and restore mobility, various principles must be applied to modern housing policies. Consistency in regulations across urban areas can facilitate diverse populations, while tolerance toward organic neighborhood growth allows for a rich tapestry of community life. Most importantly, embracing an ethos of abundance—by prioritizing the creation of more housing units—can address the profound shortage that has developed over decades. These principles collectively aim to foster a more inclusive and equitable environment where individuals can thrive and realize their potential.
If you had to describe the U.S. economy at the moment, I think you could do worse than the word stuck.
The labor market is stuck. The low unemployment rate disguises how surprisingly hard it is to find a job today. The hiring rate has declined consistently since 2022, and it's now closer to its lowest level of the 21st century than the highest. We’re in this weird moment where it feels like everybody’s working but nobody’s hiring. Second, the housing market is stuck. Interest rates are high, tariffs are looming, and home builder confidence is flagging. The median age of first-time homebuyers just hit a record high of 38 this year.
Finally, people are stuck. Americans don't move anymore. Sixty years ago, one in five Americans moved every year. Now it’s one in 13. According to today’s guest, Yoni Appelbaum, the deputy executive editor of The Atlantic, the decline of migration in the U.S. is perhaps the most important social fact of modern American life. Yoni is the author of the latest cover story for The Atlantic, "How Progressives Froze the American Dream," which is adapted from his book with the fitting title 'Stuck.' Yoni was our guest for our first sold-out live show in Washington, D.C., at Union Stage in February. Today, we talk about the history of housing in America, policy and zoning laws, and why Yoni thinks homeowners in liberal cities have strangled the American dream.
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