

History Says Recession & Market Correction This Year Are Nearly Unavoidable | Michael Kantrowitz
Apr 18, 2023
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
Introduction
00:00 • 4min
The Hope Framework
03:36 • 1min
The Importance of Understanding the Markets and the Macro Economy
04:44 • 5min
The Progression of Housing Prices
09:39 • 3min
The Effect of Home Builders Sentiment on Housing Prices
12:10 • 1min
The Relationship Between Mortgage Rates and Consumer Confidence
13:26 • 5min
The ISM Manufacturing Index Readings Below 50 Signify a Contracting Economy
18:52 • 2min
The Importance of Historical Patterns in Recessions
20:35 • 2min
The H and Housing Markets in a Correction
22:10 • 1min
The Interaction of the Hope Cycle and the Housing Data
23:30 • 6min
The Signs of a New Bear Market
29:24 • 6min
The Progression of a Downturn and Recession
35:07 • 2min
The Markets Quote Unquote Not Yet Reflecting This
36:42 • 3min
The Market Discounting the Economic Downturn
39:41 • 5min
The Light Blue Line in the Markets Tracks the Trend of the ISM New Waters Data
44:13 • 2min
The E of Hope for the Economy
46:16 • 2min
The Effect of Credit Spreads on Markets
47:50 • 2min
The Probability of a Recession Goes Up
50:03 • 2min
The Impact of a Hard Landing on the Market
51:57 • 2min
The Difference Between Soft Landing and Hard Landing
53:58 • 2min
The Difference Between a Soft Landing and a Hard Landing
56:23 • 5min
The Fed's Tightening of Lending Standards
01:01:22 • 3min
The Probability of Recession
01:04:12 • 4min
The Consequences of a Slowdown
01:08:24 • 4min
How to Allocate for the Recession
01:12:52 • 4min
The Perma Bear Label
01:16:32 • 2min
How to Be a Successful Macro Investor in 2023
01:18:16 • 2min
How to Avoid a Recession and a Market Correction
01:20:00 • 2min