Research @ Citi Episode 51: Are US Consumers Still Consuming?
Oct 9, 2025
Steven Zaccone, a U.S. Broadlines and Hardlines Retail Analyst at Citi, shares insights on the resilience of U.S. consumers amidst macroeconomic challenges. He discusses how tariffs are raising prices on imported goods and the differentiated impact of income levels on spending behavior. Zaccone also covers the slowing growth of e-commerce and the potential of AI to transform online shopping. With cautious optimism for the holiday season, he highlights risks such as a market pullback that could affect consumer strength.
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Episode notes
Consumer Resilience Amid Mixed Forces
- Citi's view: the U.S. consumer is resilient despite macro uncertainty and mixed headwinds and tailwinds.
- Resilience stems from strong asset prices, housing, and still-stable employment for many consumers.
Tariffs Versus Policy Tailwinds
- Tariff increases and geopolitical noise are headwinds while potential rate cuts and permanent tax changes are tailwinds.
- The balance of these forces should keep spending supported, especially for middle-to-upper income households.
Where Tariff Inflation Shows Up
- Tariff-driven price pressure hits imported hardlines (furniture, electronics) much harder than services.
- Services face labor and food cost pressures but show signs of easing relative to goods inflation.