China's Slowing Economy Could be a Catalyst for Change in Africa
Mar 14, 2024
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Angolan President's visit to China amid economic challenges, Chinese money for Africa dwindling, potential reforms needed. Impact of China's slowdown on Africa's commodity exports, opportunities for diversification. Discussion on US, China, Turkey roles in African development, complex relationships and dynamics.
A slowing Chinese economy could prompt African governments to enact much-needed reforms.
Angola's shifting focus to industrialization beyond oil exports signifies a strategic move towards manufacturing capabilities.
African economies face challenges in diversifying mineral value chains away from China, hindered by infrastructural gaps and price competition.
Deep dives
Angolan President's Short Visit to China Amid US-China Relations
Angolan President Joao Lorenzo's brief three-and-a-half-day visit to China, meeting with President Xi Jinping and Premier Li-Chiang, stands out in the context of US-China rivalry. Lorenzo strategically leverages his recent dealings with the US to negotiate confidently in Beijing, considering Angola's $18 billion debt to China.
Strategic Choice of Shandong Province for Angola-China Relations
President Lorenzo's visit to Shandong, a wealthy Chinese province known for its industrial prowess, signifies Angola's shift towards industrialization beyond oil exports. The choice signals a move away from traditional hubs like Shenzhen and Shanghai and hints at Angola's intent to enhance manufacturing capabilities and navigate the Great Power competition effectively.
Opportunities and Challenges in Diversifying Critical Mineral Value Chain
The podcast delves into the opportunities and challenges for African economies in diversifying critical mineral value chains away from China. While presenting potential for global value chain participation and alternative market exploration, the podcast underscores the infrastructural and competitive hurdles, citing examples like energy deficits and Chinese subsidies affecting competitive pricing.
US Concerns about Chinese Influence in Africa
The increasing Chinese presence in Africa is viewed by the US as a threat to American influence on the continent. This perception stems from economic investments, military partnerships, and digital infrastructure initiatives led by China. US policymakers express apprehension over potential Chinese military bases in Africa, triggering security concerns. However, African perspectives suggest a nuanced approach towards engaging with China for mutual benefits, highlighting the need for the US to understand Africa's leverage and economic goals.
Challenges in US Competition with China in Africa
US efforts to counter Chinese influence in Africa face operational challenges compared to China's Belt and Road initiatives. General Langley emphasizes the importance of strategic partnerships with African nations to deter Chinese influence. The discussion underscores the significance of interagency collaboration and leveraging allies to confront Chinese economic, diplomatic, and military activities. Despite US developmental assistance like PEPFAR, the narrative highlights the complexity of US-Africa relations and the need for nuanced approaches amidst growing competition in the region.
Angolan President João Lourenço kicked off a three-day visit to China this week that will take him to Beijing and Shandong Province. The timing of Lourenço's trip comes as the Chinese economy is facing enormous challenges amid a plunge in FDI, surging youth unemployment, and much slower growth.
The easy Chinese money for African leaders is no longer there and that may not be a bad thing, says Gyude Moore from the Center for Global Development in Washington, D.C.
Gyude wrote a column this month that said a slowing Chinese economy could force a lot of African governments to initiate badly needed reforms. Gyude joins Eric & Geraud to discuss his somewhat contrarian view on the rapidly changing China-Africa relationship.
SHOW NOTES:
Center for Global Development: Is There a Silver Lining for Africa in China’s Slowdown? by W. Gyude Moore: https://tinyurl.com/2yu4vka8
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