Exchanges How Reliable is Economic Data?
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Sep 25, 2025 
In this insightful discussion, Erica Groshen, former Commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, shares her expertise on economic data reliability. She emphasizes the necessity of scheduled revisions for accurate statistics and highlights how pandemic-related changes have affected data quality. Groshen warns against the dangers of political influences on data integrity and notes that recent staff cuts threaten the BLS’s resilience. The conversation also explores the implications of losing trust in official statistics and the importance of timely data for decision-making.
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Three Root Causes Of Data Deterioration
- Pandemic-related swings, stagnant funding, and falling survey response rates have amplified data noise and uncertainty.
- These structural changes make seasonal adjustments harder and increase measurement errors over time.
Revisions Are A Feature Not A Bug
- Revisions are an expected feature of timely statistics and reflect late reports entering the payroll survey.
- Large, same-direction revisions often occur around economic turning points when affected firms report late.
Don’t Replace Monthly Data With Quarterly Releases
- Keep monthly releases because they provide timely, market-relevant information despite later revisions.
- Ignore early or late vintages if you prefer accuracy over timeliness when making decisions.