Facts vs Feelings with Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese

Welcome to Episode 50!

Sep 6, 2023

Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese celebrate their 50th episode, analyzing the jobs report, discussing GDP growth, and the strength of consumption. They explore the historic stock market performance in September and reflect on reaching podcast milestones. They also discuss the employment population ratio, women in the labor market, the current state of the economy, and the role of feelings in understanding it. The hosts share their upcoming plans, concert experiences, and labor day wishes while reminiscing about the 80s.

38:29

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Quick takeaways

The recent jobs report indicates positive signs of normalization in the labor market, with solid job growth and a decrease in the vacancy ratio.

Consumer consumption continues to exceed expectations, with real consumption doubling since pre-pandemic levels.

Deep dives

Summary of the 50th episode of Facts vs Feelings podcast

In the 50th episode of the Facts vs Feelings podcast, the hosts reflect on the success of their podcast, reaching over 25,000 downloads and celebrating the milestone of 50 episodes. They discuss the importance of the power of voice in podcasting, with listeners appreciating the banter and personal stories shared. The hosts also delve into the recent jobs report, highlighting the positive signs of normalization in the labor market, with solid job growth, a high employment-population ratio, and a decrease in the vacancy ratio. The conversation shifts to consumer consumption, which continues to exceed expectations, as real consumption has doubled since pre-pandemic levels. Finally, the hosts address the myth of September being the worst month for the stock market, providing historical data that suggests a more positive outlook for the month. Overall, the 50th episode celebrates the podcast's success and offers insights into the current economic landscape and market trends.

Introduction

2min

The Frustration of Being a Fan and Economic Updates

5min

Analysis of the Employment Population Ratio and Women in the Labor Market

2min

The Current State of the Economy: Normalization, GDP Growth, and Wage Growth

14min

Connecting with listeners, storytelling, and the role of feelings

5min

Upcoming Plans, Concert Experiences, and September Market Insights

9min

Reminiscing about the 80s and Labor Day wishes

2min

Ready for a special episode of Facts Vs. Feelings?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese celebrate their 50th episode of the podcast! They chat about the recent jobs report, highlighting the increase in jobs created and the slight rise in the unemployment rate. They also touch on economic indicators such as yields, wage growth, and the manufacturing sector.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

An analysis of the monthly jobs report, discussing the number of jobs created, unemployment rate, and the health of the labor market
The slowdown in nominal GDP growth and the misconception of recession
The growth in manufacturing jobs and the strength of consumption
The vacancy ratio, its relation to supply and demand for labor, and the Fed's interest in lowering the ratio
Their key takeaways for reaching 50 episodes
An explanation of why September is historically the worst month for the stock market
The historical performance of the stock market in August and the expectation for September
And more!

Resources:

Talking Macro with Neil Dutta (Ep. 47)

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

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