GD POLITICS Nate Silver On LA Protests, NYC's Mayoral Race, And Elon Musk
Jun 12, 2025
Guest Nate Silver, statistician and founder of FiveThirtyEight, dives into the heart of today’s political turmoil. He analyzes immigration raids and protests in Los Angeles, linking them to the Trump administration's response. The discussion shifts to the competitive Democratic primary for New York City mayor, including potential third-party candidates. Silver also touches on how economic conditions influence political approval ratings and the Democrats' struggle for a unifying leader amidst growing concerns.
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Economy Drives Trump's Approval
- Trump's approval rating trajectories mostly follow economic conditions, especially concerns about tariffs causing inflation and economic harm.
- Many media and analysts overestimate how closely average voters track political news, especially on topics like immigration raids.
LA Immigration Raids Escalate Tensions
- The Trump administration's immigration raids in LA are seen as escalatory and disproportionate.
- Despite media coverage, the average American is largely exhausted and less engaged with these protests and events.
Shepherd Tone Creates Endless Crisis
- The "shepherd tone" effect means political crises seem nonstop as news cycles create the illusion of escalating tension without real resolution.
- Trump often backs down after initial aggressive moves, but constant high drama exhausts and confuses the public.