Weekend Edition: Return of the Japanese Carry Trade
Nov 29, 2024
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Harry Ishihara, a macro strategist for Macrobond and the Japan Exchange Group, sheds light on the dynamics of the Japanese carry trade amid a fluctuating yen. He emphasizes the cautious return of retail investors, the 'Mrs. Watanabes', despite recent challenges. Ishihara discusses Japan's economic recovery driven by strong foreign investments and changing consumer behaviors. He also addresses the evolving trade landscape under the new Trump administration and the implications for U.S.-Japan relations, especially in key industries like automotive and semiconductors.
The revitalization of Japan's economy is evident through significant wage growth and increased consumer spending on luxury goods.
Foreign direct investment in Japan is soaring, fueled by favorable relations with the U.S. and strategic government initiatives promoting growth.
Deep dives
Japan's Inflation Recovery
Japan is experiencing a notable economic recovery attributed to a return of inflation, which has allowed companies to increase prices and margins. Recent data shows a rise in the 30-year Japanese government bond yield, reflecting expectations for robust growth. Anecdotal evidence underscoring this recovery includes significant wage growth, with reports of increases between 5% to 7%, and a booming consumer market evidenced by increased spending on luxury goods and experiences. The revitalization of consumer confidence is a strong indicator of the country's strengthening economy.
Foreign Investment and Domestic Demand
Japan is seeing a surge in foreign direct investment, overtaking China for the first time, due in part to favorable US-Japan relations and a strategic government initiative aimed at green and digital transformation. Major international companies are investing heavily in Japan, with Amazon, Microsoft, and Google committing billions to the local market, indicating a positive outlook for domestic demand. This foreign investment is expected to bolster Japan's capabilities in technology and clean energy, both of which are crucial for sustained economic growth. As Japan positions itself as a tech hub, it also aims to attract companies looking to relocate from China, enhancing its competitive edge.
Challenges of a Weak Yen and Global Dynamics
The current state of the yen presents a mixed outlook, with expectations leaning towards moderate weakness due to ongoing interest rate differentials between Japan and the U.S. A weaker yen tends to benefit Japanese exporters, especially multinationals, as it enables them to maintain competitiveness in international markets. However, uncertainty arises from potential policy changes under a new U.S. administration, particularly concerning tariffs and trade relations, which could impact Japan's export performance. As Japanese investors begin to reengage in the global market through carry trades, the implications of foreign investment strategies will play a significant role in determining Japan's economic trajectory.
Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here.
A weak Yen and low interest rates had been fuelling the Japanese Carry Trade, as retail investors – the Mrs Watanabes – prospered from higher returns overseas. They took a hit from the rising Yen in the third quarter of this year, but Harry Ishihara says they are back, just a little more cautious this time. Harry is a macro strategist for Macrobond and Japan Exchange Group. He talks to Phil about the importance of Japanese retail investors, the continued confidence in Japan’s future, with strong inward investment, and the challenges posed by the new Trump administration.