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NAB Morning Call

Weekend Edition: Return of the Japanese Carry Trade

Nov 29, 2024
Harry Ishihara, a macro strategist for Macrobond and the Japan Exchange Group, sheds light on the dynamics of the Japanese carry trade amid a fluctuating yen. He emphasizes the cautious return of retail investors, the 'Mrs. Watanabes', despite recent challenges. Ishihara discusses Japan's economic recovery driven by strong foreign investments and changing consumer behaviors. He also addresses the evolving trade landscape under the new Trump administration and the implications for U.S.-Japan relations, especially in key industries like automotive and semiconductors.
24:34

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Quick takeaways

  • The revitalization of Japan's economy is evident through significant wage growth and increased consumer spending on luxury goods.
  • Foreign direct investment in Japan is soaring, fueled by favorable relations with the U.S. and strategic government initiatives promoting growth.

Deep dives

Japan's Inflation Recovery

Japan is experiencing a notable economic recovery attributed to a return of inflation, which has allowed companies to increase prices and margins. Recent data shows a rise in the 30-year Japanese government bond yield, reflecting expectations for robust growth. Anecdotal evidence underscoring this recovery includes significant wage growth, with reports of increases between 5% to 7%, and a booming consumer market evidenced by increased spending on luxury goods and experiences. The revitalization of consumer confidence is a strong indicator of the country's strengthening economy.

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