Money & Macro Talks China's mineral dominance: how the West should respond ft. Tobias Gehrke
Dec 8, 2025
Tobias Gehrke, a senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, shares his insights on the critical minerals that are reshaping global economics. He explains how China gained dominance in refining and the implications of potential export restrictions. Gehrke emphasizes Europe's weakened position and the urgency for allied partnerships to scale mining and refining efforts. The conversation also highlights the importance of strategic stockpiling, innovation, and a balanced approach in addressing these geopolitical challenges.
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What Makes A Mineral 'Critical'
- Critical minerals are the economic skeleton used across defense, chips and the green transition.
- Different countries list 30–50 materials as critical depending on domestic availability and industry needs.
Refining Is The Real Choke Point
- Refining and processing, not mining, are the real chokepoints for many minerals.
- Refining is energy-intensive, environmentally damaging, and concentrated largely in China.
China's Rare-Earth Export Controls
- China placed export controls on refined rare earths and permanent magnets, forcing firms to apply for Beijing licences.
- Tobias links this to China learning to weaponize supply chains after earlier Western controls on tech exports.