Unchained Bits + Bips: Why a U.S. Recession May Be Coming — And Still Isn’t Priced In - Ep. 814
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Apr 9, 2025 The discussion dives into the potential U.S. recession and its surprising absence in market pricing. Tariffs are under scrutiny, as the hosts question their real impact on consumers and local businesses. They explore whether Bitcoin could become a safe haven amid economic turmoil. Comparisons to past downturns, including 2022 and 2008, add depth to the analysis of current market volatility. With humor, they dissect political narratives surrounding tariffs and their broader economic implications, reflecting on the complexities of today’s financial landscape.
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Market Turmoil from Tariffs
- Markets are in turmoil due to Trump's tariffs, with major indices experiencing significant drops.
- Market volatility is high, signaling potential capitulation, but uncertainty makes it difficult to assess buying opportunities.
Unique Market Selloff
- This selloff differs from 2020 and 2022; it's sharper, more vertical, and man-made.
- It's driven by Trump's actions, creating uncertainty about the future world order.
Bear Market Risks
- The probability of a bear market has increased significantly due to declining earnings and policy uncertainty.
- Consider the impact of declining supply chains and eroding consumer confidence on stock valuations.