In continuing "higher for longer", the gravitational force weighing on the economy from current elevated interest rates will compound, resulting in "weaker for longer" economic growth. Powell knows this and re-emphasized (once again) that the full force -- i.e., the lag effect -- of the Fed's hiking & tightening regime has not yet manifested. Key takeaway: conditions are going to get harder from here, especially through next year.
The Fed is expecting the labor market weaken and unemployment to rise. I agree with this forecast, though the Fed's projected 2024 unemployment rate of 4.1% seems far too rosy, IMO. We are already at 3.8% in October 2023 and, as mentioned, the lag effect has yet to substantially materialize. Consumer spending will likely slow, corp profits will likely be further pinched, layoffs will likely rise -- and if a recession hits (which I think is likely but the Fed is trying to downplay), then the employment situation gets a lot worse.
Interestingly, when asked directly, Powell downplayed expectations of a "soft landing". He said it still "possible", but his Fed-speak strongly suggested that he thinks the firmness of the Fed's policies will result in a harder-landing.
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