In continuing "higher for longer", the gravitational force weighing on the economy from current elevated interest rates will compound, resulting in "weaker for longer" economic growth. Powell knows this and re-emphasized (once again) that the full force -- i.e., the lag effect -- of the Fed's hiking & tightening regime has not yet manifested. Key takeaway: conditions are going to get harder from here, especially through next year.
The Fed is expecting the labor market weaken and unemployment to rise. I agree with this forecast, though the Fed's projected 2024 unemployment rate of 4.1% seems far too rosy, IMO. We are already at 3.8% in October 2023 and, as mentioned, the lag effect has yet to substantially materialize. Consumer spending will likely slow, corp profits will likely be further pinched, layoffs will likely rise -- and if a recession hits (which I think is likely but the Fed is trying to downplay), then the employment situation gets a lot worse.
Interestingly, when asked directly, Powell downplayed expectations of a "soft landing". He said it still "possible", but his Fed-speak strongly suggested that he thinks the firmness of the Fed's policies will result in a harder-landing.
************************
At Wealthion, we show you how to protect and build your wealth by learning from the world’s top experts on finance and money. Each week we add new videos that provide you with access to the foremost specialists in investing, economics, the stock market, real estate and personal finance.
We offer exceptional interviews and explainer videos that dive deep into the trends driving today's markets, the economy, and your own net worth. We give you strategies for financial security, practical answers to questions like “how to grow my investments?”, and effective solutions for wealth building tailored to 'regular' investors just like you.
Put the wisdom from the money & markets experts we feature on Wealthion into action by scheduling a free consultation with Wealthion’s endorsed financial advisors, who will work with you to determine the right next steps for you to take in building your wealth.
SCHEDULE YOUR FREE WEALTH CONSULTATION with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors here: https://www.wealthion.com/
Subscribe to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKMeK-HGHfUFFArZ91rzv5A?sub_confirmation=1
Follow Adam on Twitter: https://twitter.com/menlobear
Follow us on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Wealthion-109680281218040
#hardlanding #federalreserve #higherforlonger
******************************
IMPORTANT NOTE: The information, opinions, and insights expressed by our guests do not necessarily reflect the views of Wealthion. They are intended to provide a diverse perspective on the economy, investing, and other relevant topics to enrich your understanding of these complex fields.
While we value and appreciate the insights shared by our esteemed guests, they are to be viewed as personal opinions and not as official investment advice or recommendations from Wealthion. These opinions should not replace your own due diligence or the advice of a professional financial advisor.
We strongly encourage all of our audience members to seek out the guidance of a financial advisor who can provide advice based on your individual circumstances and financial goals. Wealthion has a distinguished network of advisors who are available to guide you on your financial journey. However, should you choose to seek guidance elsewhere, we respect and support your decision to do so.
The world of finance and investment is intricate and diverse. It's our mission at Wealthion to provide you with a variety of insights and perspectives to help you navigate it more effectively. We thank you for your understanding and your trust.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
