At Any Rate EM Fixed Income: Not spooked yet
Oct 30, 2025
Anezka Christovova, an expert on emerging markets at J.P. Morgan, and Ben Ramsey, the head of EM Sovereign Strategy, share insights on the latest developments in EM fixed income. They delve into whether current data supports a growth pivot and explore how EM central banks might respond to changing inflation and growth trends. The duo discusses potential catalysts for an EMFX rally versus the dollar and examines investment strategies amidst tight credit spreads. They also analyze the implications of Argentina's election results on market dynamics.
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Growth Upgrades Support EM Case
- Global growth indicators have surprised to the upside, supporting a growth-positive view for EM assets.
- Fed comments introduced some hawkish uncertainty but do not overturn the broader EM-friendly backdrop.
Fed Pulls Back On Cut Certainty
- Chair Powell pushed back on market certainty around a December cut, reducing the probability priced in by markets.
- JPMorgan still views a December cut as likely and expects multiple cuts over the next 12 months.
Diverging Growth And Inflation Signals
- JPMorgan revisions show a clear upward bias to EM growth expectations across most countries.
- Inflation disinflation momentum has stalled, producing mixed inflation revisions and pressuring low-yielders.