The Defense Department’s 2024 China Military Power Report: A Conversation with Dr. Ely Ratner and Dr. Michael Chase
Jan 2, 2025
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Ely Ratner, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, and Michael Chase, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for China, delve into the U.S. Department of Defense's 2024 China Military Power Report. They analyze advancements within the People’s Liberation Army, highlighting concerns over military spending and nuclear arsenal growth. The discussion also uncovers the impacts of corruption within the PLA and examines evolving Chinese military dynamics, notably regarding Taiwan, the South China Sea, and China-Russia military ties.
China's military modernization efforts under Xi Jinping are ambitious, aiming for significant advancements by 2027, 2035, and 2049.
The estimated defense budget of China could be 40 to 90 percent higher than reported, highlighting a focus on regional contingencies like Taiwan.
Corruption within the PLA poses serious challenges to military effectiveness, undermining operational capabilities and confidence in leadership amidst modernization efforts.
Deep dives
Overview of China's Military Modernization Goals
China continues to pursue its military modernization under Xi Jinping's national strategy, despite facing domestic challenges. The latest report highlights advancements in the People's Liberation Army (PLA) capabilities, particularly in conventional forces and nuclear expansion. It outlines milestones set for 2027, 2035, and 2049, emphasizing investments in space, cyberspace, and electronic warfare. However, the report also acknowledges persistent issues, such as personnel quality and corruption, which may impede achieving these ambitious objectives.
Assessing Military Expenditures and Deficiencies
Recent assessments indicate that China's actual defense budget may be significantly higher than publicly stated, with estimates suggesting it could be 40 to 90 percent more. This discrepancy reflects substantial investments in capabilities primarily focused on potential contingencies around Taiwan and other regional interests. Despite this growth, longstanding deficiencies in command capabilities, particularly due to lack of combat experience, remain prominent. The report emphasizes the need to address these weaknesses to ensure effective military operations.
Nuclear Expansion and Strategic Concerns
The increase in China's nuclear arsenal, now estimated at around 600 warheads, raises serious strategic concerns. This modernization reflects not only an increase in quantity but also improvements in technological diversity and sophistication. The report notes that China aims to develop a more capable nuclear triad, including ballistic missile submarines and nuclear-capable bombers, which adds complexity to global nuclear dynamics. Lack of transparency from China regarding its nuclear strategy complicates effective risk assessment and stabilization efforts.
Impact of Corruption on Military Capability
Corruption within the PLA has become a significant concern, undermining the military's operational efficacy and modernization initiatives. The government's anti-corruption campaign reflects the seriousness of this issue, as high-ranking officials face investigations that disrupt bureaucratic stability. These corruption issues extend beyond minor misconduct, indicating deeper challenges related to military procurement and project execution. The perception of corruption erodes confidence in the PLA's leadership and its ability to meet defined military goals.
China's Increasing Military Coercion in the Region
The PLA's operational behavior has become increasingly coercive, especially regarding Taiwan and U.S. allies in the South China Sea. Recent military exercises demonstrate shifts in operational norms around Taiwan, with significant increases in PLA activities aimed at demonstrating strength and intimidation. Despite these developments, there is an acknowledgment that the U.S. has enhanced its strategic position in the Indo-Pacific, fostering deeper alliances. These dynamics indicate that while China expands its military reach, it also faces vulnerabilities that could be exploited by U.S. and allied forces.
This ChinaPower Podcast is a recording of an event we held on December 18th, 2024 on the U.S. Department of Defense’s (DOD) 2024 report on the Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China (PRC)—commonly known as the China Military Power Report (CMPR).
Required every year by Congress for over 20 years, the CMPR offers an authoritative assessment of the PRC's national strategies and its regional and global ambitions. It also outlines key developments pertaining to People’s Liberation Army (PLA) modernization and the expansion of its nuclear, cyberspace, and space capabilities. What are the major takeaways from the 2024 report and what is the current assessment of China’s military power? How are China’s defense and security strategies evolving, and what does it mean for the United States? Joining us to highlight the report’s findings are Dr. Ely S. Ratner, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs and Dr. Michael S. Chase, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia.
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